Anna Price to Stephanie Howarth: Compliance review of mid-year population estimates for Wales
Dear Stephanie,
Compliance review of mid-year population estimates for Wales
We have completed a compliance review of the mid-year population estimates (MYE) for Wales produced by Welsh Government, against the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code). These statistics are currently published as accredited official statistics. Following our May 2026 review of ONS’s mid-year population estimates for England and Wales, we carried out a light-touch review of Welsh Government’s estimates for Wales, focusing on the presentation of the estimates and how uncertainty is communicated.
Based on the findings of our review, we conclude that the MYE continue to comply with the Code and should retain their accredited official statistics designation. Key strengths we identified include Welsh Government working closely with ONS to produce the MYE for Wales and clear communications that help users understand and interpret the estimates. The review also identifies four areas where further action is needed. These include making quality information more prominent in the main bulletin and strengthening how uncertainty and appropriate use are communicated.
We expect Welsh Government to implement our recommendations in time for its next MYE release in summer 2027 and to provide OSR with a public update on its progress by the next release.
Thank you to your team for their constructive engagement with us throughout this review.
I am copying this letter to Will Perks, Head of Education, Social Justice and Population Statistics; Stephanie Harries, Population and Migration Statistics; and Martin Parry, Head of Health and Care Statistics.
Yours sincerely,
Dr Anna Price
Joint Head of Regulatory Compliance for OSR