Richard Elliott to Ed Humpherson: Response to assessment of the 2031 censuses in Northern Ireland, Scotland and England and Wales

Published:

Sent from: Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency

Sent to: Office for Statistics Regulation

Richard_Elliott_to_Ed_Humpherson_Response_to_assessment_2031_Censuses_Northern_Ireland_Scotland_England_and_Wales (197 KB)

Dear Ed,

Response to Assessment of the 2031 censuses in Northern Ireland, Scotland and England and Wales

Thank you for your letter dated 19 May 2026, outlining the Office for Statistics Regulation’s intended approach to regulating 2031 census outputs across the UK. The early clarity on your proposed regulatory principles is welcome, as is the opportunity to engage at this stage of planning.

I am grateful to you and your team for reflecting on the lessons learned from the regulation of the 2021/22 censuses, and for acknowledging the feedback and contributions from census offices during that process.

The proposed approach in your letter strikes an appropriate balance between assurance and flexibility. In particular, I am supportive of a phased assessment process, which should help ensure that regulatory activity is targeted where it adds most value for users, while allowing issues to be considered at the most appropriate stage of census delivery. I also welcome the proposal to make accreditation decisions ahead of publication, supported by transparent communication where those decisions remain provisional.

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank you and your team for your work in assessing Census 2021 in Northern Ireland for accreditation. I welcomed the OSR’s recognition of NISRA’s commitment to delivering high-quality, trustworthy, and valuable Census 2021 outputs – and was particularly pleased that the assessment highlighted the success of our dissemination tools, user engagement, and collaborative working across jurisdictions.

I also wanted to update you on the recommendations highlighted in the phase 3 assessment report (published in February 2025).

  • Future development of survey questions: Insights from the Census Quality Survey, particularly regarding questions with lower agreement rates, are being used to inform future questionnaire development. The ‘Ever worked’ question for example will be reviewed as part of this process. I have also recently joined the GSS Devolved Government Standards Steering Group to keep fully aware of the ongoing wider work in this area. This will feed directly into Census 2031 questionnaire design where relevant.
  • Pandemic-affected data: We have continually enhanced our guidance to help users interpret statistics impacted by COVID-19 and have signposted alternative data sources to support analysis. This is centrally hosted on our Impact of COVID page. A Comparison of Northern Ireland Statistical Population Dataset with Census 2021 has also been published supporting the accuracy of Census 2021 estimates. These lessons will inform our approach to supporting users of Census 2031 outputs, including the provision of clear guidance and contextual information where required.
  • Cross-jurisdiction collaboration and outputs: We continue to work closely with Office for National Statistics (ONS), National Records of Scotland (NRS), and Central Statistics Office (CSO) to improve the comparability of census outputs. We have actively contributed to the development and publication of UK-wide and all-Ireland statistics, informing our users of each release along the way:

NISRA continues to have representation on the NRS, ONS and CSO Census Governance Boards. Cross UK planning has been a major element of Census 2031 planning.

  • Website improvements: A review of the NISRA census webpages has taken place to improve navigation and accessibility, to ensure users can easily locate and interact with the data and supporting materials. This includes the addition of a top-level page “Find the census data you need.” We will continue to review and improve on the NISRA website as Census 2031 materials become available.

We aim to continue to build on the lessons learned from 2021 in designing a census for 2031. This is reflected in the NISRA Census 2031 Outline Strategy which provides a clear articulation of the purpose and scope of the census in Northern Ireland, setting out the core principles and values that will guide its design, delivery and evaluation – while aligning it firmly with the principles of the Code of Practice for Statistics.

We have already commenced a programme of topic consultation and testing to inform the content for the next Census – which includes plans for a large-scale Census Test in March 2027. This work is being taken forward in close partnership with the Office for National Statistics and National Records of Scotland, helping to ensure that decisions on census content are underpinned by robust evidence and that a coherent UK-wide approach is adopted where appropriate, while also reflecting Northern Ireland’s specific information needs. Analysis of consultation responses is currently underway, with findings expected to be published in the autumn.

Against this backdrop, and in accordance with Section 12(1) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007, I am writing to request a formal assessment of the 2031 Census in Northern Ireland.

We look forward to working with you and your team to shape an assessment approach to Census 2031 that is effective and proportionate, and for the opportunity to engage further through the proposed in-person roundtable event. We are committed to ensuring that our census planning and development work is undertaken in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics, embedding the principles of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value from the outset.

I am copying this letter to Philip Wales, Chief Executive of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Yours sincerely,

Richard Elliott

Director of Census and Population Statistics, NISRA

Copied to:

Dr Philip Wales, Chief Executive, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency