E. Uncertainty of estimates
E. Users need a clear understanding of uncertainty associated with the estimates and how the estimates can be used appropriately. ONS should share detailed plans for how uncertainty will be measured and communicated.
Actions taken and commitments made by ONS to meet the recommendation
ONS published Measuring uncertainty in international migration estimates in June 2023, and International migration research, progress update: November 2023 which shares ONS’s progress on its work on measuring uncertainty in migration statistics. ONS has also added higher and lower confidence intervals into one of the graphs in the LTIM bulletin for the periods covered by the work on uncertainty to date.
ONS informed users in the latest publication on uncertainty that it will publish further work on uncertainty in the coming months.
OSR’s evaluation of evidence
ONS’s work on uncertainty is ongoing but it has demonstrated its commitment to providing users with a clear and comprehensive understanding of uncertainty. We were pleased to see the measures of uncertainty being used in the LTIM bulletin published in November 2023. ONS’s analysis of uncertainty has not fully investigated all sources of uncertainty. However, ONS told us that it will meet this requirement in full when it publishes its forthcoming work on uncertainty in the coming months. The work on uncertainty is making good progress relative to this stage in the transformation.
Actions remaining
ONS should publish further work on uncertainty to enable appropriate use and avoid misuse of the LTIM estimates.
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