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Overview
At the time of this report, the National Records of Scotland (NRS)’s mid-year population estimates (MYE), small area population estimates (SAPE) and population estimates for centenarians in Scotland are published as accredited official statistics. See the Annex for the full list of statistical publications covered in this compliance review.
These statistics provide the official headline measure of the population in Scotland and council areas, on an annual basis. Small area estimates provide more granular geographic breakdowns of the population for data zones and other geographies. The statistics currently have a wide variety of uses within central government, local authorities and health bodies, other public bodies, commercial companies and individuals in the private and academic sector. These statistics are used for allocating financial resources from central government, planning services, and calculating ratios for births and deaths at different geographical scales. Centenarians’ estimates are also important for policy development, particularly for health and welfare services, and are used to calculate mortality rates.
This review assesses the extent to which the MYE for Scotland continue to meet the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value of the Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code).
Why we did this review
These statistics are important and used extensively by a wide range of users. OSR last assessed these statistics in July 2015. We published a review of the Office for National Statistics (ONS)’s mid-year population estimates in England and Wales in May 2026, and a review of Welsh Government’s outputs in October 2026. We are also starting a review of NISRA’s mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland.
OSR’s review involved conducting desk research and speaking to a range of population statistics users in Scotland to help inform our judgements and findings.
Highlighted findings
NRS demonstrates its commitment to transparent decision making and balancing user needs with analytical constraints through its review of statistical publications and by setting out its priorities and plans in its published 2026-27 annual statistical work programme.
Many users we spoke to reported positive interactions with NRS in requesting further information and responding to queries. However, users highlighted some data gaps, and there were concerns about the communication of delays to statistical releases. There was also a desire for additional engagement activities beyond what NRS offers currently.
NRS provides users with various ways to access the statistics. Users valued the outputs and visualisations but reported that navigating NRS’s website and supporting tools (such as interactive charts) is not always straightforward. Some supporting documents are also only available as PDF, making them less accessible and harder to navigate.
NRS uses a range of administrative and supplementary data sources to produce and quality assure its population estimates, and clearly explains its main data sources. However, its published Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) reports are outdated and describe only basic assurance of key administrative sources.
Users value NRS’s clear and transparent communication of the MYE methodology and strengths and limitations of the estimates to help inform use. Internal migration, a component of the estimates, relies on people notifying their GP of a change of address. Typically, young adults, including higher education students, tend to be more mobile and are less likely to update their GP records. Whilst a known limitation, beyond its reconciliation exercise following Scotland’s 2022 Census, there is no quality information on the extent and scale of the potential underestimation of moves by young adults in Scotland.
NRS opts for a qualitative approach to communicating uncertainty to its users, using language such as ‘estimate’ within its publications. Year-on-year changes are reported more definitively yet subject to future revisions. At present, NRS does not publish quantitative estimates of uncertainty, such as credible intervals for the MYE.
Our judgement
We conclude that the mid-year population estimates produced by NRS continue to meet the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics and should retain their accredited official statistics status. The statistics offer important insight for users in Scotland on the size, demographic breakdown, and geographical distribution of Scotland’s population. Users expressed confidence in the quality and value of these statistics across a range of use cases within central government, local authorities, and the private and academic sectors. NRS provides clear statistical outputs and methodological information. NRS is also taking positive steps to consider its broader statistical portfolio through its public engagement activity, supporting transparency in its decision making.
There are opportunities for NRS to strengthen the statistics further by improving how it communicates uncertainty, limitations and changes in the data, and by making its statistics more accessible to a wider range of users. Further work to strengthen its quality assurance information and investigate known areas of uncertainty, including internal migration, would also enhance the quality and transparency of the statistics.
Next steps
OSR expects NRS to share a public update on its progress to meet the recommendations at the time of its next planned MYE release in summer 2027. We will continue to engage with NRS regarding its planned improvements and progress against our recommendations.