Compliance review of pupil suspensions and expulsions in Northern Ireland statistics
Overview
At the time of this report, statistics on pupil suspensions and expulsions in Northern Ireland are published as official statistics in development by the Department of Education (DE).
The statistics report the frequency, behavioural reasons and demographic breakdowns of pupil suspensions and expulsions from Northern Ireland schools. They are used to identify inequalities, direct behavioural support resources and shape government policy to improve long-term educational and social outcomes for vulnerable youth.
This report presents the findings and recommendations from our review of whether the statistics meet the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value in the Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code).
Why we did this review
This review was requested by DE to support further development of the statistics. The purpose of our review is to understand how the statistics have been developed in relation to the Code and provide recommendations for further improvement.
A key development for these statistics is the introduction of a new centralised management information system (MIS) across all schools in Northern Ireland, which will replace the current data collection system. The new system is expected to improve the quality of data by reducing manual processes and strengthening quality assurance.
Findings
The statistics are clearly labelled as official statistics in development. However, since they were first published in 2021, DE has made only minimal improvements to the statistics, and there is limited evidence of users being involved in planned development. This is not in line with our guidance, which states that users are central to testing official statistics in development.
The new MIS should help address existing limitations, such as manual handling of pupil transfers and duplicate records, while enabling real-time and more-accurate recording of suspensions and expulsions across Northern Ireland. The new system demonstrates DE’s commitment to reliable and accurate data collection and reducing the burden of data provision on schools.
DE has published clear and transparent quality and methods information, including detailed descriptions of data collection processes, and the extensive quality assurance and validation arrangements applied by the Education Authority (responsible for delivering education services across Northern Ireland) and DE. While there are a range of benefits of migrating to the new MIS, there are also potential systemic risks to data quality. DE has not yet published information about the planned migration or its potential implications for the statistics, although the Education Authority has provided a public update.
DE maintains positive relationships with key users of the statistics, including internal policy officials and the Education Authority and has responded to feedback from these users to improve the insight provided by the statistics. However, DE has limited engagement with users outside the department.
DE is committed to improving the accessibility of the statistics through its plans to introduce an HTML version of the bulletin.
DE has published almost all the organisational policy documents and statements required by the Code’s Standards for Official Statistics. It is still to publish an annual statistical work programme, which would further demonstrate transparency by providing users with clearer information about its plans for producing and developing statistics.
Our judgement
We conclude that the statistics generally meet the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics. DE communicates quality and methods information clearly and transparently and has plans to further strengthen data collection and quality through the introduction of a new MIS.
However, we have identified further improvements where further action is needed. DE should publish a clear development plan for these statistics, explaining the scope and nature of the development and setting out the timeframe it is expected to run. Once the new MIS has been fully rolled out and DE has developed a good understanding of the impact on quality, DE should assess whether the statistics are of sufficient trustworthiness, quality and value to be published as official statistics. DE should then look to remove the ‘in development’ label and publish the statistics as official statistics as soon as practicable.
Based on the findings of this review, we have identified three recommendations that DE should address to further enhance the statistics’ Trustworthiness, Quality and Value:
- To enhance transparency and ensure users are aware of key planned developments, DE should publish information about the transition to the new MIS in the 2027 statistical release. This should include details such as what is changing, why the transition is happening and the work that is being carried out to assure the quality of data from the new system. DE should consult our Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) framework to guide this work. In the meantime, DE should alert users about the planned change.
- To better understand and meet the needs of users, DE should plan how it will increase user engagement beyond the department. The outcomes of any user engagement activities should be communicated to users.
- To demonstrate statistical leadership and enhance transparency, DE should continue to develop and publish its annual statistical workplan required by Code 3.0.
Next steps
We expect DE to publish its annual statistical work programme by October 2026 and provide a public update on its progress implementing the MIS and addressing our recommendations by December 2026.
We will remain available to discuss plans with the team and will follow up on these recommendations to offer support and guidance as needed.