Dear Ed,
Affordable housing statistics in Wales
I previously wrote to you regarding proposed criteria for evaluating alternative methods, in order to meet the user need for more timely figures in the run up to the Senedd election in May 2026. You requested that I keep you informed on any further decisions on this topic.
I am writing to inform you of a change we are making to the forthcoming annual statistical release on affordable housing delivery in Wales, in order to improve the relevance and timeliness of these high-profile figures.
There is considerable user interest in data on affordable housing and on the government’s target for delivering 20,000 new low carbon homes for rent within the social sector. The accredited official statistics are published with a lag of around seven months, meaning for example, that data for 2024-25 will be published on 13 November. Given the attention on these statistics, and the regular requests we receive for more up-to-date data, there is public value in making more timely management information available alongside the official statistics.
Statisticians in the Welsh Government have established that management information, collected throughout the year to monitor delivery associated with government-funded housing projects, provides a reasonable indication of the eventual official statistics. As a result, in our forthcoming annual publication, we will include management information on the delivery of homes for rent within the social sector to complement the existing accredited official statistics. The following statistics derived from management information will be included in the statistical release:
- Estimate of the number of homes delivered between April and September 2025
- Projection of the number of homes to be delivered between October 2025 and March
2026
These will be presented alongside data on the number of all affordable homes planned for delivery during 2025-26 from the official statistics data collection (a long-standing component of the collection). Any differences in terms of definition, scope and quality will be explained to users within the release.
I consider releasing these figures is in the public interest because it will support the substantial interest in this topic. It will also support Welsh Ministers’ ability to transparently communicate progress against targets and enable scrutiny of performance in this high-profile policy area.
Alongside the statistical release, we will also publish a quality report and a Chief Statistician’s blog. These will provide users with additional information on the strengths and limitations of both the official statistics and the management information. They will also provide users with guidance on appropriate use of the data.
The quality and reliability of management information have improved significantly in recent years. As a result, we are actively considering how we can make more use of management information in the future and whether there is an ongoing need for two separate sets of figures on affordable housing.
Going forward we will monitor the usage and reliability of the affordable housing data, as well as monitor and respond to user need for timely statistics for other government targets.
Stephanie Howarth
Chief Statistician
Related
Ed Humpherson to Stephanie Howarth: Affordable Housing Statistics in Wales