Today, the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has published initial findings on the new methods that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are developing to produce population estimates for Engand and Wales, using administrative data sources.
The Dynamic Population Model is a new statistical model that aims to produce more-timely and accurate estimates of the population by age, sex and local authority. The DPM is part of ONS’s wider ambition to transform population and migration statistics and make more use of administrative data.
The report recognises the ambition of ONS in developing the DPM, which is an innovative method for estimating the population using administrative data.
OSR has identified eleven requirements for ONS to improve the trustworthiness, quality and value of the ABPE:
- Developing and publishing criteria to support the decision about when the ABPEs will replace the MYEs, in consultation with key stakeholders such as the Welsh Government;
- Strengthening the governance structure and decision-making responsibilities for the production and development of the ABPE, and managing any risks associated with funding, capability and prioritisation;
- Publishing a plan for addressing the recommendations and suggestions in Professor Wiśniowski’s independent review of the data and methods used in the DPM.
- Understanding and quantifying the quality and uncertainty of the data inputs to the DPM, especially the Statistical Population Dataset (SPD) and the migration data, and implementing regular assumption checking and validation;
- Publishing more information on the quality and methodology of the ABPEs, including the strengths and limitations of the data sources, the coverage of special population groups, and the impact of data and methods changes over time;
- Improving its quality assurance process;
- Implementing and publishing a revisions policy for the ABPEs, based on user feedback and analysis of the scale and frequency of revisions;
- Creating and implementing technical and expert user groups to provide independent and external challenge and assurance on the methods used in the DPM;
- Developing and implementing a user engagement strategy specific to the ABPEs, to understand and meet user needs, communicate plans and updates, and manage user expectations;
- Being open to scrutiny from key stakeholders and users and responding appropriately to their feedback and queries; and
- Improving and tailoring the communication of the methods and quality of the ABPEs, considering the differing technical expertise of population statistics users.
These recommendations build on the positive progress ONS has made in publishing a suite of information related to these statistics today. Taking the actions outlined in the recommendations will ensure that users have more confidence in the new method, and therefore the ABPEs themselves.
Ed Humpherson, Director General for OSR, said:
“We support ONS’s ambition and work to improve its population statistics. Measuring the size and composition of our population in an accurate and robust way is crucial to inform decisions that impact citizens’ everyday lives. Our assessment recognises the ability of the ONS team leading this work. It identifies key areas for ONS to address to enhance the admin-based population estimates. We look forward to seeing ONS publish its action plan by October 2024, setting out how it intends to address our requirements, reporting back to us publicly every three months following that on progress.”
Mary Gregory, Interim Director of Population Statistics for ONS, said:
“We welcome the work of the Office for Statistics Regulation which, along with input from our users, helps inform our development of these important statistics. Today, we’ve provided an update on our progress towards admin-based population estimates (ABPEs). We’ve sharing these new data to help users understand the new approach, share their feedback with us, and take time to consider what it means for them before we move to the ABPEs as our official estimates of the population.
Although these ABPEs are at a research and development stage, our intention is for them to become our official measure of the population in 2025, dependent on meeting the acceptance criteria we will publish later this year. We will take into account the feedback we receive following engagement, and will only transition to the new approach once we are confident they are of the high standards that our users need.
We will be working closely with the Office for Statistics Regulation as we seek accreditation of the ABPEs, and our long-term international migration estimates.”
Notes to Editors
- The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) provides independent regulation of all official statistics produced in the UK, and aim to enhance public confidence in the trustworthiness, quality and value of statistics produced by government. OSR regulate statistics by setting the standards official statistics must meet in the Code of Practice for Statistics. We ensure that producers of official statistics uphold these standards by conducting assessments against the Code. Those which meet the standards are given Accredited Official Statistics status, indicating that they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value. We also report publicly on systemwide issues and on the way that statistics are being used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not.
- OSR is independent from government Ministers, and separate from producers of statistics, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS). OSR’s Director General, Ed Humpherson, reports directly to the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority Board, Sir Robert Chote. The Director General, and OSR, have wide discretion in highlighting good practice and reporting concerns with the production and use of statistics publicly.
- OSR’s work is overseen by the Board’s regulation committee (made up of non-executive directors, and with no statistical producer in attendance). OSR’s budget is proposed by the Board’s regulation committee and endorsed by the Board.
- OSR would like to thank Professor Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, an expert on Social Statistics and Demography from the University of Manchester, for providing independent expertise and support for this project.
For media enquiries please contact OSR at regulation@statistics.gov.uk
Related Links:
ONS blog: Our population is changing and so is the way we measure it