The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has today published its compliance review of national and subnational 2024 mid-year population estimates (MYEs) for England and Wales produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Whilst MYEs remain an important and valued source of information about the population, the review highlights significant quality concerns at subnational level, particularly in local authority areas with high population churn.
For MYEs to retain their current accredited official statistics status, OSR has set four requirements which ONS must address. ONS is expected to report publicly on how it has met these requirements by the next MYE publication in summer 2026. In summary, ONS is required to:
- Clearly and transparently explain the strengths and limitations of current MYE methods, and what it plans to do to address weaknesses.
- Clearly explain pandemic impacts on the MYEs and publish evidence to justify its claim that its estimates since 2021 are unaffected by systemic pandemic effects.
- Strengthen how it communicates uncertainty and limitations, particularly for non-technical users, and improve the navigation and accessibility of quality and methodology information.
- Update and actively promote clearer guidance on which population estimates should be used for different purposes.
OSR has also made several recommendations to further improve the statistics, with progress on these to be reported publicly by ONS by the end of 2026. Given ONS’s current focus on continuous improvement of the MYEs, the review findings should play a central role in shaping planned work.
Today OSR also confirmed that the outputs from the 2021 Census in England and Wales (excluding gender identity statistics) continue to meet the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value and will retain their status as accredited official statistics.
Ed Humpherson, Director General for Regulation, said:
“Mid-year population estimates play a central role in decisions that affect people and places across England and Wales. Where there are material limitations in the quality of these statistics, particularly at local authority level, it is vital that these are clearly explained and well understood. Our requirements are designed to ensure users can have confidence in how these estimates are produced and how they should be used.”
Notes to editors
- The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) provides independent regulation of all official statistics produced in the UK, and aims to enhance public confidence in the trustworthiness, quality and value of statistics produced by government. OSR regulates statistics by setting the standards official statistics must meet in the Code of Practice for Statistics. We ensure that producers of official statistics uphold these standards by conducting assessments against the Code. Those which meet the standards are given accredited official statistics status, indicating that they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value. We also report publicly on systemwide issues and on the way that statistics are being used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not. OSR is independent from government ministers, and separate from producers of statistics, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
- OSR’s Director General, Ed Humpherson, reports directly to the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority Board. The Director General, and OSR, have wide discretion in highlighting good practice and reporting concerns with the production and use of statistics publicly. OSR’s work is overseen by the Board’s regulation committee (made up of non-executive directors, and with no statistical producer in attendance). OSR’s budget is proposed by the Board’s regulation committee and endorsed by the Board.
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