Over the past week there has been considerable discussion in the media about rates of crime and the reliability of crime data in England and Wales. Given the societal importance of crime, it is vital that crime statistics are used in an accurate and transparent way in public debate.
In line with our role to protect the use of statistics in public debate, we have set out our views on crime data sources below.
Many of the claims made this week have been based solely on the police recorded crime statistics. These statistics are based on the number of offences reported to and recorded by the police. Because of this, the police recorded crime statistics are a better indicator of police activity than trends in crime, as many crimes are not reported to the police. In addition, the police recorded crime statistics do not provide reliable long-term trends in crime due to improvements to police crime recording processes and practices in recent years.
The other main source for crime statistics in England and Wales is the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW). The CSEW estimates provide a better measure of long-term trends in crime than police recorded crime, as explained clearly in the Crime in England Wales statistical bulletin published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is because it is unaffected by changes in levels of reporting to the police or police recording practices.
The CSEW and police recorded crime statistics each have strengths and limitations. For instance, the CSEW is a survey of crime experienced by individuals, so it does not capture crimes against businesses and organisations such as shoplifting. These crimes are captured in the police recorded crime statistics.
When used together, the two data sources provide a more complete picture of crime. ONS sets out in the statistical bulletin which data source provides the most reliable measure for each of the main crime types.
We have confidence in the quality and reliability of the CSEW. Last year, we reinstated the accredited official statistics status of the CSEW estimates as we were satisfied that ONS had demonstrated that the quality of the current estimates is broadly similar to the pre-pandemic estimates. We have also publicly commented on the measures of crime on several occasions including in our ‘What to look out for’ statements for the 2024 General Election.
Notes for editors
There are two main sources of official statistics on crime in England and Wales: statistics from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and the police recorded crime statistics. These statistics are published quarterly by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the Crime in England and Wales statistical bulletins.
Our 2024 review of the CSEW was undertaken following the temporary suspension of the accreditation in July 2022 due to quality concerns, including a drop in the survey response rate.
We removed the accredited official statistics status, formerly referred to as National Statistics accreditation of police recorded crime stats in 2014 following an assessment which found evidence that the quality and consistency of the underlying data may not be reliable. Our recent review of the quality of police recorded crime statistics for England and Wales, published in May 2024, found that crime recording by police forces has improved since 2014. However, challenges remain in ensuring the quality of the police recorded crime data.
Office for Statistics Regulation
- The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) provides independent regulation of all official statistics produced in the UK, and aims to enhance public confidence in the trustworthiness, quality and value of statistics produced by government. OSR regulates statistics by setting the standards official statistics must meet in the Code of Practice for Statistics. We ensure that producers of official statistics uphold these standards by conducting assessments against the Code. Those which meet the standards are given accredited official statistics status, indicating that they meet the highest standards of trustworthiness, quality and value. We also report publicly on systemwide issues and on the way that statistics are being used, celebrating when the standards are upheld and challenging publicly when they are not.
- OSR is independent from government ministers, and separate from producers of statistics, including the Office for National Statistics (ONS). OSR’s Director General, Ed Humpherson, reports directly to the Chair of the UK Statistics Authority Board. The Director General, and OSR, have wide discretion in highlighting good practice and reporting concerns with the production and use of statistics publicly. OSR’s work is overseen by the Board’s regulation committee (made up of non-executive directors, and with no statistical producer in attendance). OSR’s budget is proposed by the Board’s regulation committee and endorsed by the Board.