Statement on the use of statistics relating to violence against women and girls in Northern Ireland

Context and evidence

In recent months, we have seen several UK Government ministers, including Hilary Benn and Jess Phillips, claim that Northern Ireland is “the most dangerous place to be a woman”. These statements have attracted significant public and media attention. Given the seriousness of violence against women and girls and the strength of these claims, it is essential that they are supported by clear evidence and communicated with appropriate context.

In line with our role in supporting the appropriate use of statistics in public debate, we want to highlight several considerations regarding these claims.

It is important to place these specific statements in the context of the overall picture on statistics on violence against women and girls. Understanding violence against women and girls involves consideration of multiple data sources, including police recorded crime data, victimisation surveys and academic research. Each source has its strengths and limitations. For example, police recorded crime statistics are influenced not only by the prevalence of crime, but also by police recording practices, reporting behaviour, public confidence in policing and operational changes. As we have stated previously, police recorded crime statistics do not always provide a reliable measure of long-term trends in crime.

Evidence on Northern Ireland

Turning to statistics relating to Northern Ireland, we have not found a data source that shows that Northern Ireland is more dangerous for women than other parts of the UK or internationally, in the context of violence against women and girls.

Public statements about the level of violence against women and girls in Northern Ireland have generally referred to the number or rate of female homicides.

On these specific claims, we understand that earlier statements about the high rate of homicides in Northern Ireland compared to other countries were based on statistics published by Eurostat. This dataset was subsequently found to contain classification or recording errors. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), which publishes official statistics on homicides recorded in Northern Ireland, released a statement in 2022 that clarified the errors. As outlined in an updated statement, the Eurostat tables now display the correct figures, which show that several European countries have higher rates of intimate-partner homicide of women than Northern Ireland. Figures for Northern Ireland have been unavailable in the Eurostat tables since 2019 but remain available through the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime data portal.

Interpreting and comparing the data

Care is needed when using homicide-based measures. Northern Ireland’s relatively small population (1.93 million according to the 2024 mid-year population estimates) means that small changes in the number of deaths can result in large year‑to‑year fluctuations in homicide rates. As a result, single‑year comparisons and rankings are often volatile and should be treated with caution as they may not reflect underlying trends.

Looking at longer-term trends using rolling averages provides a more stable and meaningful picture. Using this method, PSNI found that Northern Ireland’s female homicide rate is broadly in line with the European average (between 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000 over the latest available five years) rather than being exceptionally high. Therefore, longer-term trends do not support claims that Northern Ireland is more dangerous.

Homicide is one form of violence against women and girls. Other forms include domestic abuse, sexual assault and stalking. There is no single agreed definition or measure of violence against women and girls. Therefore, when making statements about the level of violence against women and girls in Northern Ireland, it is important to be clear about which form of violence is being referred to, as well as the data source, and the extent to which different data sources can be compared. It is not appropriate to compare police recorded crime data with estimates from crime victimisation surveys, for example, as they measure different things (crimes reported to the police and experiences of crime reported to interviewers) and cover different offence types and populations.

More broadly, statistical comparisons between Northern Ireland and other countries require caution. Differences in legal definitions, crime recording standards, levels of reporting, and the way the data are compiled may affect comparability across jurisdictions.

Responsible use of statistics

Those using statistics in public debate have a responsibility to do so carefully. Claims that lack transparency or context risk misleading the public and undermining confidence in the official statistics.

This is especially true for topics of major public concern such as violence against women and girls, which causes profound harm to victims, families and communities. When using statistics on violence against women and girls, it is important to check data sources, understand limitations and avoid using outdated or incorrect evidence.