UK Statistical System UK Statistics Authority Code of Practice
Articles by: Ed and Elise

Data in debate: The role of statistics in elections

In our latest blog, our Head of Casework and Director General set out the guidance and support available for navigating statistics during an election campaign, and our role in publicly highlighting cases where statistics and data are not published or presented in a misleading way.

Intelligent transparency is something we talk about a lot in OSR. It involves taking an open, clear, and accessible approach to the release and use of data and statistics by default. It’s something we care about deeply, as public confidence in publicly quoted statistics is best enabled when people can verify and understand what they hear.

Taking a transparent approach by default will be particularly important during the upcoming general election campaign, where statistics will likely play a role in informing decisions made by the electorate but opportunities for governments to publish new analysis will be restricted. This is because in the weeks leading up to an election, known as the pre-election period, the Cabinet Office and Devolved Administrations set rules which limit public statements or the publishing of new policies and outputs.

Official statistics are unique in this respect as routine and preannounced statistics can continue to be published during this time, in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. However, given that the pre-election ushers in a period of public silence for most government department activity, the publication of new information should be by exception. Any public statements made during the pre-election period should only refer to statistics and data that are already in the public domain to ensure that the figures can be verified and to avoid the need to publish new figures.

Part of our role as a statistics regulator is to promote and safeguard the use of statistics in public debate. We do not act to inhibit or police debate, and we recognise that those campaigning will want to draw on a wide range of sources, including statistics, to make their case for political office. Nevertheless, we will publicly highlight cases where campaigning parties have made statements that draw on statistics and data that are not published or presented in a misleading way.

Our interventions policy guides how we make these interventions, but we recognise that election campaigns require particularly careful judgement about when to intervene. This is why we’ve published our Election 2024 webpage, which brings together our guidance and support on election campaigns. This includes new guidance on the use of statistics in a pre-election period for government departments which sets out our expectations for how they should handle cases where unpublished information is referred to unexpectedly.

Reacting to misuse is not our only tool. This election, we want to do more up front to help people navigate through the various claims and figures thrown about during an election. This is why we are launching a series of explainers on key topics that will cover what to look out for and the common mistakes in public statements that we have seen through our casework across topics which are likely to feature in an election campaign.

We are also working in partnership with other organisations and regulators whose vision is aligned with ours and who support the good use of evidence in public debate. Our hope is that as a collective, we can contribute to the effective functioning of the election campaign.

We are not an all-purpose fact-checking organisation, nor are we the regulator of all figures used in public statements. However, while we can’t step into every debate, we will take all the necessary steps we can to ensure that the role of statistics in public debate is protected and that the electorate is not misled.

Anyone can raise a concern about the production or use of statistics with us. You can find out more about our remit and how to raise a concern with us by visiting our casework page.

Related links:

Election 2024 Homepage

Election 2024 Guidance: Use of statistics in a pre-election period

Election 2024: Other support and guidance

Interventions policy

 

There’s more to statistical communication than avoiding truncated axes…

In our latest blog, DG for Regulation Ed Humpherson and Head of Casework, Elise Baseley talk about the importance of communication to make statistics accessible and meaningful.

There’s more to statistical communication than avoiding truncated axes. It’s about making statistics accessible, meaningful, perhaps even enjoyable, for people.

At the Office for Statistics Regulation, we’ve recently commented on data visualisations that are misleading, or potentially misleading. Our role in calling out these problems remains important. But we’ve recognised the need to go much deeper into what makes communication helpful and accessible.

Communication of statistics, focusing on accessibility, was a big theme of the recent UKSA strategy midpoint event that I participated in a couple of weeks ago. The event was great and had some brilliant speakers including: Laura Gilbert, head of No 10 Downing Street’s data science team; Ming Tang, chief data officer for NHS England; and Tim Harford, the journalist and broadcaster. In different ways, they all emphasised the need to make statistics relevant and accessible for people – both people who are users or potential users of statistics, and for people who want a career in statistics and data.

The event was summed up very neatly in Tim Harford’s advice to “think like a 14 year old”, reflecting on the success of the Australian Covid dashboard.’ Tim was highlighting that the Australian version of the Covid dashboard turned out to be developed by three 14-year-olds. Apparently, they outed themselves once they were vaccinated and appeared in the data. The three teenagers had been experimenting with displaying the data and it turned out to be a massive success as it was communicated so simply.

While the event gave me a renewed enthusiasm for the importance of statistical communication, I found it hard to escape the feeling that OSR could be doing more to drive improvement in this space. Statistics must be communicated in a way that is easy to understand. The teams who produce statistics should be willing to explain what they mean – and what they don’t mean: recognition of uncertainty is so important. And as the work of the Winton Centre at the University of Cambridge has shown, being honest about uncertainty doesn’t seem to damage trustworthiness at all.

As I said at the event, we can’t do it alone: it will require us to build partnerships with a wide range of other organisations who care about the public’s engagement with statistics.

Of course, we do a lot of work already on this. I’ve already mentioned our interventions on weaknesses in the use of visualisations. These are important issues and are recognised as such by communicators in Government. After we’ve intervened, the relevant teams have recognised the issues and put in place new practices to prevent their recurrence. We’re also working with the Analysis Function to reiterate good practice.

But we also know that these interventions are not enough. Instead of intervening when risky visualisations are produced, we need to be much more upstream: understanding what supports public understanding, how statistics should be communicated, and how to identify what matters to a wide range of public audiences.

This is where our review of statistical literacy comes in. We commissioned it because we get frustrated by the attitude that the problem with statistics is that the public doesn’t have the expertise to understand them. This always strikes us as being a bit exclusive, perhaps even arrogant. And maybe not even true – there is evidence from the pandemic that people are both interested in and well equipped to understand well-presented statistics. Instead, then, of focusing on weaknesses in other people’s statistical literacy, our review says producers should regard it is all a matter of communication.

So: this will be one of our key priorities for the year that’s coming. We know there’s more to supporting good statistical communication than stamping out truncated axes. As Tim Harford’s example of the Australian Covid dashboard demonstrates, sometimes we just need to approach the problem through the eyes of an inquiring citizen.