Rough Sleepers

Have you wondered how many of the people who’ve been helped off the streets since the start of lockdown, now have somewhere permanent to live? At OSR, we think it is important this information is published and accessible, and we are working with statistics producers across the UK to encourage the development of new and improved data and statistics in this important area.

The pandemic is placing an urgent focus on the experiences and needs of rough sleepers, and the broader homeless. This is due to the increased risks that they face from being unable to isolate themselves safely, and because many of them already experience poor health.

The terms ‘homeless’ and ‘rough sleeper’ are used interchangeably in public debate. People sleeping rough are the most visible form of homelessness, but there are other large, less visible groups of individuals without somewhere permanent to live and many others who are vulnerable to becoming either homeless or to sleeping rough, at any given time.

Unprecedented actions by governments and charities across the UK to provide emergency accommodation to rough sleepers or homeless people at risk of rough sleeping, are creating important new questions, such as:

how many individuals have now found more permanent accommodation?
how many people have already, or may in future, return to sleeping rough or become homeless?

Can these questions be fully answered?

Official UK statistics on rough sleeping, and homelessness more broadly, whilst developing in different ways in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland due to different approaches to homelessness policy and criteria for state support, have all been subject to recent innovations.

Recent developments which have enhanced the overall public value of the available official statistics by closing gaps in the evidence base include:

new experimental statistics on homelessness in Northern Ireland; Homeless deaths in England, Wales and Scotland, and homeless deaths due to COVID-19 in England and Wales
new interactive tools to help users to make informed decisions about how to use the available UK homelessness and rough sleeping (and housing) data
funded projects to link government homelessness data in England with other administrative data to improve understanding about those people most at risk of becoming homeless or rough sleeping
new cohort analyses of rough sleepers’ journeys through the statutory homelessness system in England
plans to publish new evidence in England about the homeless history, experiences, characteristics and use of services for people sleeping rough or at risk of sleeping rough
data linkage research exploring the relationship between health and homelessness in Scotland, and
consideration of new street homelessness statistics in Scotland.

These developments are helping to ensure that official government figures better reflect the range of lived experiences of people who are homeless in the UK. But robust statistical evidence needed to answer key questions about the experiences of UK rough sleepers since the start of the pandemic is still lacking.

New management information on the numbers of rough sleepers, and those at risk of rough sleeping, who have been provided with emergency accommodation since the start of lockdown is now being collected by UK councils. However, this management information is not always recorded consistently, and in many cases remains unpublished.

We expect new emerging data in this area to be made publicly available when used in official public statements, and welcome the efforts of the statisticians involved in making this happen in England and Wales, where some data has been published on the numbers of rough sleepers or those at risk of rough sleeping who have been provided with emergency accommodation. The latest data for England also includes information on the number of people provided with settled, hostel or supported accommodation or since the pandemic began. Notwithstanding this progress, there is a clear and urgent need for more comprehensive, timely and accessible UK official statistics about the circumstances of the homeless and rough sleepers since the start of the pandemic. Without such evidence, these and other important questions about the experiences of these vulnerable people will remain unanswered.

We are therefore encouraged to see that UK statisticians and analysts are working together to look at ways to bring together rough sleeping statistics from across the landscape, and provide clarity on the comparability of these statistics across the UK. We hope they continue to work together to innovate and develop new statistics, to ensure that the current and future circumstances of some of the most vulnerable people in society during the pandemic, are better understood.

Developing a fuller picture

The true public value of homelessness and rough sleeping statistics lies in bringing together the separate official measures of homelessness and rough sleeping, with other robust and insightful evidence, to develop a richer, better integrated and coherent statistical picture of homelessness and rough sleeping in the UK. This includes drawing on newer case-level and longitudinal approaches, management information, and other research, to better understand how people move in and out of homelessness and rough sleeping over time, and to more fully convey the dynamics and complexity of the UK homelessness and rough sleeping picture.

We trust that senior leaders will support government statisticians in their efforts to achieve this, and provide the resources they need to share new methods, new data, and expertise for innovation and enhanced insights, while maintaining existing official statistics production.

Only with a fuller picture, drawing on a range of robust sources of statistics and further evidence, will government statistics be able to fully represent the lived experiences of homeless people in the UK. And only then will governments, charities and other key decision makers be able to truly support them to find ways out of the extremely difficult circumstances that they face.

Homelessness is an important issue in its own right. It is also an illustration of the concern for public value that underpins the Office for Statistics Regulation.

Last week’s publication of DCLG’s estimate of rough sleepers for England generated a significant amount of comment in mainstream and social media. The statistics indicate a continued rise in the estimated number of rough sleepers in England, based on a mixture of local authority counts and estimates for one night in Autumn (between October and November) each year since 2010.

Rough sleeping counts and estimates for England, London and rest of England, autumn 2016

Source: DCLG

“we felt there was a risk of confusion from multiple publications of statistics”

Some of the coverage referred to our work on homelessness. Our assessment, published in December 2015, highlighted the need for a coherent picture of homelessness.

This 2015 assessment represented a crucial moment in developing our focus on the public value of statistics. We judged that public value lies in bringing together separate measures of statutory homelessness, prevention and relief, and rough sleepers. And we felt there was a risk of confusion from multiple publications based on differing definitions, like ‘statutory homelessness’ and ‘prevention and relief’.

We also proposed specific changes, and DCLG has implemented many of these. For example the rough sleeper statistics published last week included for the first time valuable information about the demographic characteristics of rough sleepers in England in response to our recommendations.

We’ve been pleased by DCLG’s work to improve the statistics so far. But the interest in rough sleepers last week bears out our analysis.

For example, on clear definitions, the terms ‘rough sleeper’ and ‘homeless’ are frequently used interchangeably. This may divert attention from the fact that while rough sleepers are the most visible and affecting form of homelessness, there are other groups of people without somewhere permanent to live.

And on integrated publication, DCLG’s rough sleeping figures are published separately from DCLG’s other quarterly homelessness statistics. These statistics show that, along with the rise in the number of rough sleepers since 2010, levels of prevention and relief support have increased over the last decade, while the figures for statutory homelessness have come down.

Cases assisted to obtain alternative accommodation (homelessness prevention and relief), each quarter, to Q3 2016

Households accepted by local authorities as owed a main (statutory homelessness) duty, each quarter, to Q3 2016

Source: DCLG

“the key is to ensure the statistics reflect the lived experience of the homeless”

The situation in other countries in the UK varies from that in England, as each nation has taken its own approach to homelessness policy. Each is equally complicated, with different criteria for state support and limitations in measuring those not eligible or recorded by the existing systems. And some of the underlying systems of measurement are also changing.

Through all these different approaches, it’s important to remember the human aspect. The key is to ensure the statistics reflect the lived experience of the homeless.

That’s why we have emphasised a more integrated approach. With a fuller picture, governments, charities and other key decision makers can best support homeless people – and help them find a way out of the extremely difficult circumstances that they face.

Homelessness is an important issue in its own right.

It is also an illustration of the concern for public value that underpins our work at the Office for Statistics Regulation.

Ed Humpherson
Director General, Office for Statistics Regulation
1 February 2017