Requirements and next steps

Despite the findings of the 2016 NSQR, investment and the uniqueness of the LCF production systems has not been a priority for ONS. This under-investment has contributed significantly to the data quality issues faced over the last three years and prevented the LCF team from having the opportunity to develop their work to improve the accuracy of expenditure data and reduce burden on already unwilling participants.

We have identified several ways the LCF needs to be improved to meet users’ needs and to comply with the highest standards of the Code. Urgently fulfilling the requirements of this assessment is necessary to ensure that the LCF and its outputs continue to be fit for purpose. In order to retain the National Statistics status for Family Spending in the UK, we require ONS to:

a) Demonstrate a positive direction of travel by making some short-term gains by the end of 2021 as follows:

1. ONS needs to take remedial action to improve the stability of the existing LCF processing system and to develop a new system which meets the needs of users and the staff running the systems.
2. ONS should enhance its understanding of the value of the statistics by improving its engagement with users, within and outside ONS, to capture a wide range of views and use these to drive its priorities for development. ONS should reflect on the Government Statistical Service’s User Engagement Strategy for Statistics to help determine the best methods for engaging with users.
3. ONS should provide a mechanism and relevant access for other teams in ONS who make use of LCF data to be able to contribute to the quality assurance of the data.

b) Publish a plan which includes specific actions, deliverables and a timetable by the end of March 2022, that explains how it will address the following strategic improvements:

1. ONS needs to develop a solution to address user need for more-granular breakdowns of data, so that the devolved administrations and other key users can use the statistics in the ways that they need to for the public good.
2. ONS needs to invest time and resource to pursuing initiatives to improve the quality and robustness of LCF data. ONS should be open to creative solutions to improve the response rate, such as continuing exploring the use of different short and long form questionnaires/diary, alternative sampling strategies and linking with other data sources, rather than focusing only on increasing the existing sample.

We have also highlighted several considerations for ONS to reflect on as part of its LCF and RPI improvement project.

a) ONS should consider extending the scope of its project work to include input from some of its key external users, such as those in the devolved administrations, where additional intelligence could be gathered on the use and issues faced by the government in its use of LCF data.

b) ONS should consider the management of risks throughout the end-to-end production process as part of the LCF projects medium term work and ambitions.

c) ONS should determine a longer-term solution for the LCF which draws on a broader base of data, international best practice and wider transformation initiatives.

We expect ONS to report back to us every quarter, starting from the end of September 2021, demonstrating its progress against these requirements. We will review the National Statistics status of Family Spending in the UK at each of these points.