Climate change, net zero statistics

Summary

Climate change, including the shift in the Earth’s average temperatures and weather conditions, is a high-profile issue. Through the Climate Change Act 2008 as Amended, the UK Government committed to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. ‘Net zero’ means that any greenhouse gas emissions would be the same as, or less, than those removed from the atmosphere, which can be achieved through a combination of reduction and removal of emissions. The UK Government has established various policies and plans in order to meet this target.

Achieving the Net Zero target requires reducing emissions and removing greenhouse gases. There are a number of statistical producers involved in reporting official statistics related to climate change and net zero. It is important to understand what each of these statistics do and do not show.

Statistics include:

• Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) – UK territorial greenhouse gas emissions that show emissions within UK borders.
• Defra – UK carbon footprint shows all emissions associated with UK consumption, regardless of where they occur in the world.
• Office for National Statistics (ONS) – Environmental accounts show residency-based emissions or emissions from UK residents and UK registered business regardless of whether in UK or overseas.
• DESNZ – Digest of UK energy statistics provide information on energy production, trade, and consumption in the UK.
• DESNZ – Energy and emissions projections for future emissions in the UK and are based on assumptions of future economic growth, fossil fuel prices, electricity generation costs, UK population and other key variables.

Data and statistics on energy and the environment are also available on the Welsh Government, Scottish Government and DAERA (NI) websites.

Things to consider in public statements about net zero:

There are three different measures of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions available. Each measure has differences in what is included and excluded in the estimate as well as its own context, limitations and uncertainties. When listening to claims using statistics around the climate and net zero, it is important to understand the context of the data being used.

• The territorial emissions estimates produced by DESNZ, in line with international guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are used for monitoring progress against the UK’s emissions reductions targets as required by the Climate Change Act.
• The UK’s carbon footprint is produced by Defra and shows the UK’s global contribution to greenhouse gas emissions through UK consumption.
• Residency-based emissions estimates are published by the ONS. These estimates are aligned with the UN System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA).

The policy landscape is complex and involves various government departments. Monitoring progress and evaluating policy and plans requires a range of different data sources. Data are required for example to monitor indicators of progress on emissions from vehicles on road and rail, from buildings from industry, from agriculture and land use, and from fuel supply.

Statements about climate change and net zero should provide clear definitions – including of emissions measures, appropriate context and any caveats, particularly if making international comparisons.

For example, claims sometimes confuse renewable electricity generation and consumption. The amount of renewable generation can be equal to the gross electricity consumption of a country, but this does not automatically mean that all electricity consumed by that country was from renewable sources. This issue is explained further in a letter from Sir Robert Chote from November 2022.

Wider support

The Climate Change Committee, is an independent statutory body that reports to parliament on progress towards emissions targets. They produce annual progress reports which draw on a number of official statistics. The Climate Change Committee website also provides Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland mitigation progress reports.

Devolved administration greenhouse gas inventories are available on the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory website.

The House of Commons Library published a research briefing in November 2023 on the UK’s plans and progress to reach Net Zero by 2050. The briefing looks at both policy developments in 2023 and scrutiny of the governments approach.

The UK greenhouse gas emissions statistics page brings together official statistics on UK greenhouse gas emissions and related publications. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has also produced a summary of the three measures of UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: territorial, residence and footprint, last revised in May 2024: Measuring UK greenhouse gas emissions.