Overview

Introduction

This report provides an update on the progress made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) against the requirements set out in the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR)’s short review of reintroduced LFS-derived labour market statistics. It sets out OSR’s evaluation of the actions that ONS has taken, and a statement outlining the remaining actions that are necessary for each unmet and partially met requirement.

This report is not a full assessment against the Code of Practice for Statistics, which OSR would usually carry out with a view to awarding statistics the designation of accredited official statistics. In line with our Official Statistics policy, it falls to ONS to determine whether the ‘in development’ label should be removed from the statistics and when to formally ask OSR to carry out a full assessment for the statistics to become accredited.

Background

The Labour Force Survey is the main household survey that is used in the compilation of official estimates of the UK labour market. ONS manages the LFS in England, Scotland and Wales and publishes UK statistics. In Northern Ireland the data collection, analytical, reporting and dissemination phases are managed by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). This report is focused on ONS’s Labour Force Survey (LFS).

At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic all LFS face-to-face interviewing was suspended, and as such, statistics producers needed to respond and consider alternative ways to collect survey data, including for the LFS. At that time, interviews were conducted over the telephone instead of in-person. The change in mode to telephone-only affected both the level of response and the non-response bias of the survey and consequently the survey estimates. As the survey transitioned to this new mode, response rates were lower and ONS found the characteristics of those who were responding were not as representative of the population. The removal of the LFS sample boost in July 2023, which ONS had introduced during the pandemic, worsened the quality issues as the achieved sample reduced further.

In October 2023, response issues in the ONS’s LFS became so acute that ONS had to suspend LFS-based labour market estimates for the UK and introduce an experimental method using administrative sources. We undertook a rapid review and provided recommendations to ONS on how it could maximise the value of these data.

In November 2023 ONS set out its improvement plan including reintroducing face-to-face interviews and the sample boost in October 2023 and January 2024, respectively. LFS Reweighted LFS-based estimates were then reintroduced in February 2024, of which we carried out a further review.

The Transformed LFS (TLFS) is being developed by ONS as the long-term solution to falling response rates and quality challenges on the LFS. The ambition of the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) is to allow a more adaptive and responsive survey to meet user needs, enhance respondent experience and improve the quality of our labour market statistics.

In its July 2024 transformation update, ONS announced that it is extending the parallel run of the TLFS for a further six months to allow for extra quality assurance and to provide further quarters of data for comparison. It intends to report back in the first quarter of 2025 and keep users updated on progress in the meantime. During this period ONS will continue to use the LFS as its lead measure of the labour market.

In forming our judgements, we reviewed ONS’s latest July transformation update and ONS’s latest Labour Market outputs published on July 18.

Summary of findings

ONS has made good progress with its LFS improvement work, including through its latest Labour Market outputs published on July 18. We set out seven requirements in our report in March 2024. This report closes three of these requirements.

The remaining four requirements focus on:

• communicating LFS updates and developments with the Transformed LFS (TLFS) together in a way that users can easily access
• improved communication around the uncertainty in the data and what this means for the use of these data
• the publication of more detailed information about the principles and quality criteria ONS will consider in making further LFS improvements and the transition to the TLFS
• the publication of more detailed information about ONS’s plans for LFS improvements from now until TLFS transition and for transitioning to the TLFS

Despite these remaining gaps, we recognise the significant work going on within ONS to bring together its thinking and communication around the LFS and plans to transform the LFS.

ONS has also demonstrated its commitment to greater transparency and taken a more proactive approach to user engagement through creating a new stakeholder panel and commissioning an independent methodological stocktake of the TLFS survey design and response from Professor Ray Chambers and Professor James Brown. These steps forward will support public confidence in these important statistics.