Introduction

About this report

1.1 The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) has been periodically reviewing labour market statistics from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the development of the Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), as well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS)’s ongoing activity to transform the survey to include online data capture, against the Code of Practice for Statistics. We have published a series of reports, which are listed in Annex 3.

1.2 This report provides an update on our view on ONS’s work to transform the LFS following ONS’s December update on progress and plans. The annexes of this report consolidate our work on both the LFS and TLFS, bringing together our judgements to date and providing updates on the remaining recommendations. Annex 1 provides our judgement on ONS’s progress against the recommendations in our July 2023 progress update. Annex 2 provides our judgement on ONS’s progress against our requirements related to the LFS.

1.3 As well as reviewing published material, to help us form our judgements, we have been speaking to a range of users of these statistics and have observed user workshops. These user views are captured throughout this report.

Background to the statistics

1.4 The LFS is the main household survey used to compile official estimates of the UK labour market.

1.5 In October 2023, low response rates raised concerns over the representativeness of the survey sample. As a result, ONS decided to temporarily suspend production of estimates using the LFS. ONS diverted resources to support the LFS and published a recovery plan to improve the quality, coverage, adaptability and responsiveness of the survey.

1.6 ONS has also been developing a transformed version of the LFS (known as the TLFS) using a digital collection approach. ONS has been developing and dual-running the TLFS alongside its recent work to improve the LFS. In May 2024, ONS published a suite of guidance documents for expert users to help them understand the initial work on the variables and methodology used to develop the TLFS to that point.

1.7 Following an academic review of progress in 2024, ONS’s timelines for transitioning to the TLFS have changed. In its update published in December 2024, ONS indicated that there are different options for transitioning to the TLFS, some of which could take until 2027 to finalise. ONS also indicated that the LFS estimates would be less volatile from May 2025.

1.8 As noted in its December update for users, ONS is also developing and piloting a shorter version of the TLFS. ONS plans to share the results of these pilots with users in 2025.

Summary of our judgements

1.9 It has been nearly 5 years since ONS changed mode from mixed face-to-face and telephone interviews to exclusively telephone interviews for the LFS because of the COVID-19 pandemic. ONS staff are working on the LFS recovery plan to regain robust estimates from the LFS, including the reintroduction of face-to-face interviewing from October 2023 for waves 1 and waves 2, but the five-wave design of the survey means that it takes time for improvements to fully feed through into published statistics, and ONS resources are spread thinly. We will engage with ONS and users to understand whether these changes have increased quality sufficiently to meet user needs.

1.10 ONS has acted to address most of the recommendations from our reviews of the estimates from the LFS. In this context, the classification ‘official statistics in development’ continues to be appropriate for estimates from the LFS.

1.11 At the request of ONS and the Welsh Government, we have removed the accreditation from their outputs based on data from the Annual Population Survey (APS). We took this action because the APS, which is based on responses to wave 1 and wave 5 of the LFS plus a boost sample, is currently failing to deliver sufficiently granular statistics to meet user needs.

1.12 ONS continues to work on the TLFS. On 3 December 2024, ONS published an interim action plan based on the results of its ‘lessons learnt’ exercise conducted in summer 2024; published the detail of an independent methodological review; and explained its plans in an accessible way.

1.13 ONS has taken a step forward by setting out a realistic view of the time that might be taken to complete the TLFS programme. And while users are clearly disappointed that this process will take longer than expected, they are also pleased that ONS has increased its engagement, communication and openness on the programme.

1.14 After assessing ONS’s revised plans, we find that our previous recommendations about the TLFS remain relevant. We have also made two additional recommendations calling on ONS to set out detailed plans for transitioning to the TLFS and to set out its plans for regular reporting on the progress of the interim action plan from its ‘lessons learnt’ exercise.