Annex 2: Findings on the statistics from the Labour Force Survey

This section of the report provides an update on the progress that ONS has made against the requirements set out in OSR’s progress review dated July 2024. We set out seven requirements in our original review report in March 2024. Three of these requirements were met by July 2024, and so this section notes the actions taken towards the other four requirements.

1a. To help users understand and keep up to date with the full narrative around developments to the LFS, ONS should gather this information in one place and make it easily accessible to users.

1b, ONS should consider the feasibility of a central landing page that includes the updates to the surveys.

Evidence

In his letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee in December 2024, the National Statistician provides an update on ONS’s expert user engagement. ONS introduced a new monthly Technical Engagement Group in October 2023 to provide a forum to discuss upcoming developments and improvements in an open and transparent manner. This group has provided invaluable input and feedback on plans for both LFS and TLFS. In addition, in June 2024, ONS established the Stakeholder Advisory Panel on Labour Market Statistics.

ONS has a landing page about employment and labour market statistics, covering people in work. Opening this tab links users to the information on employment and employee types. At the bottom of this page is a link to the page titled Labour market transformation – update on progress and plans.

OSR judgement

ONS has continued to improve the depth of its reporting on the changes to the LFS, the TLFS and the APS. ONS produces accessible blogs on its National Statistical channel and publishes articles to update more-expert users. ONS has been facilitating user workshops and open seminars where the developments and improvements to the three surveys have been openly explained and discussed with users.

We will consider this requirement to be met once ONS has published its stakeholder engagement plan (see Recommendation 1 in Annex 1). We expect ONS to continue to demonstrate this level of openness throughout the transition to the TLFS.

2a. To enable users to more fully understand the uncertainty around the LFS data, ONS should be clearer in its communication around terms such as ‘volatility’ and ‘caution’. It should also link clearly to the data which demonstrate where this volatility and uncertainty exists to enable appropriate use of the data

2b. ONS should explain more clearly about the sources of bias in the sample. We asked ONS to improve its signposting by including links from all the publications that included LFS data to the appropriate data tables.

Evidence

ONS includes a narrative in its UK employment statistics that explains that the data are “a combination of accredited official statistics (AOS) and official statistics in development (OSID) and therefore, we advise the consideration of this when using”. It draws users’ attention to further information in the section about data sources and quality. ONS makes clear which outputs are AOS and which are OSID. The bulletin also notes “Further information on response rates and other quality-related issues for the LFS can be found in our quarterly Labour Force Survey performance and quality monitoring reports”. These reports include detail about the response rates and sample size for the quarterly estimates using LFS data.

ONS published the article Impact of reweighting on LFS key indicators on 3 December 2024. It notes that “Increased volatility of LFS estimates resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution. Therefore, we continue to advise caution when interpreting changes in headline rates, and recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators, alongside Workforce Jobs (WFJ), Claimant Count data and PAYE RTI estimates”.

OSR judgement

We consider the requirement to be partially met.

ONS should continue to examine the accuracy of estimates from the LFS and publish details about the causes of uncertainty and bias to assist appropriate use of the data alongside its bulletin in May 2025.

3. To support users’ confidence during the transition to the TLFS, ONS should publish updated information setting out the principles and quality criteria it will consider in making further LFS improvements and the transition to the TLFS.

Evidence

In July 2024, ONS published the high-level criteria it would use for determining its readiness to transition to the TLFS.

In his letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee in December 2024, the National Statistician provides a comprehensive update on ONS’s actions to improve the quality of the LFS estimates. From this letter, it is clear that ONS is considering response rates, bias, attrition and coherence as key quality criteria.

OSR judgement

ONS is developing, with stakeholder involvement, its measures of success for the TLFS and is also developing an LFS quality dashboard. There are plans to publish the information in April 2025.

We consider that this requirement remains relevant. When doing this work, ONS should develop a set of measurable readiness criteria to capture different aspects of user confidence and explain how this will be used to inform decisions. This should include a greater level of detail around how statistical and data quality will be measured, what is good enough and how different perspectives will be managed.

4a. To further support users during the transition to the TLFS, ONS should publish its plans for further improvements to the LFS as soon possible, making it easy for users to find on the website. These should include plans, priorities and progress and how its human, financial and technological resources are being used to deliver labour market statistics that serve the public good using LFS and, in future, TLFS data during this transition period.

4b. ONS should set out its plans for both the TLFS and the LFS more clearly.

Evidence

ONS published an update in December 2024 that noted “There are a number of potential scenarios for when the ONS will be able to responsibly transition labour market users from using the LFS to the TLFS, which are dependent on the scale of the design changes that we decide to implement. Transitioning in mid-2025 is now unlikely, given current quality concerns. Aiming to complete this process in 2027 would allow us time to implement the shorter survey with further periods of parallel run. We are continuing to explore options to minimise the timeframe to transition. We will provide an update on timescales in Spring 2025, following engagement on the findings of the test activity with our expert groups”.

In his letter to the Chair of the Treasury Committee in December 2024, the National Statistician provides a comprehensive update on the actions ONS has taken to improve the quality of the LFS estimates. He notes in summary that “progress has been made in recovering the LFS with the achieved sample now significantly higher and the incorporation of the latest population information into the estimates. The major changes we have made to the LFS will be fully included through all five of the survey waves by the first quarter of next year, which will inform the LFS estimates for publication in May 2025”.

OSR judgement

ONS has provided clarification about the forward plans for both the LFS and the TLFS, and explained that face-to-face interviewers are being used to boost the LFS response rates. Given the limited number of trained interviewers ONS can use, following this switch to the LFS, users have told us that they are concerned about achieving adequate sample sizes for other household surveys in ONS’s portfolio.

We consider this requirement to be partially met. ONS should publish details about the impact of these resource allocations on other household survey instruments and their outputs by May 2025.