Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Aims

Official statistics play a vital role in informing decision-making across society, from shaping government policy to guiding business strategies (Koecklin, Runge and Srinivasan, 2023; OSR, 2024). But how often do official statistics influence the personal decisions of individuals? Understanding this is central to the vision of the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) to ensure that statistics serve the public good.

Our research explores a key question critical to serving OSR’s wider aims: to what extent and how do people use official statistics in their personal decision-making? This study builds on OSR’s broader focus on fostering public trust in statistics and ensuring that they are relevant, accessible and impactful for everyone – not just institutions.

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 42 participants and a nationally representative survey of 2,118 people. We selected a range of real-world situations and hypothetical scenarios where the public may turn to official statistics for answers to inform general conclusions that can be applied across official statistics more widely. These included:

• Choosing a baby name: Do parents consider statistics on the popularity of baby names?
• Choosing a primary school: Do parents consult school performance data?
• Choosing a place to live: Do people use data on local house prices or crime rates?
• Choosing a GP: Do people look at statistics on GP practice performance?
• Choosing a job: Do people consider pay and job market statistics?
• Choosing to ask for a pay rise: Do pay and inflation statistics factor into asking for a pay rise?

These case studies focus on major life choices rather than day-to-day decisions, as people are more likely to remember and have sought information for these more-significant decisions (McGaugh, 2013; Bettman, Luce and Payne, 1998). In Appendix 9, we have included the decisions that were considered for this study, and others that may be considered for future studies.

In exploring these decisions, we aimed to answer a range of other research questions on the role of official statistics in decision-making:

• Value: How do members of the public find value in using official statistics?
• Sources: Where do people turn for information when making personal decisions?
• Awareness: Are people aware that official statistics exist and can be used to inform personal decisions?
• Presentation: Do people feel capable of understanding and using official statistics as currently presented?
• Barriers and facilitators: What helps and hinders the use of official statistics for making personal decisions?
• Trust: How much do people trust official statistics in making personal decisions?
• Improvements: What improvements could make official statistics more useful and accessible for personal decision-making?

1.2. Background

OSR commissioned the Policy Institute at King’s College London and the Behavioural Insights Team to conduct this research. As the independent regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority, OSR promotes and safeguards the production and publication of official statistics. Its vision is that statistics should serve the public good, and its research programme aims to deepen our understanding of what it means for statistics to serve the public good. OSR’s research to date has explored different perspectives on the public good of statistics, from reviewing literature on what we know so far and official statistics’ role in public policy, to exploring researchers’ applications to access public data, to public dialogue workshops with members of the public. OSR has also published a think piece on how statistics can serve the public good.

However, one area where evidence is limited is the role that official statistics play in the lives of the public. While their use by government or organisations is more visible (and therefore easier for OSR to account for in regulation), instances where individuals use official statistics are far more hidden. To ensure that the public use of official statistics is equally supported by OSR’s regulatory practices as their government or institutional use, OSR commissioned this research to explore whether, and how, the public uses official statistics when making decisions in their personal lives.

1.3. Relevant definitions

This study explores whether and how “the public” uses “official statistics” to make “decisions related to their personal lives”. Below, we define these key terms as they are used in our report.

• “The public”. While there are multiple publics, this research focuses on individuals who do not work with data or statistics. This allows us to understand how those without statistical expertise interact with official statistics and assess their accessibility for a general audience.
• “Official statistics”. In line with OSR policies, official statistics are those produced by Crown bodies and other organisations included on one of the Official Statistics Orders, on behalf of the central and devolved administrations. According to the United Nations guides on official statistics, official statistics provide a factual basis for assessment and decisions on economic, demographic, social and environmental issues. Management data, which are published solely for transparency or policy support, are not considered official statistics. Some official statistics are accredited or in development.
• “Decisions related to their personal lives” or “personal decisions”. For this study, personal decisions refer to real-world questions for which the public may be able to turn to statistics for guidance. We focus on those decisions that individuals take about their personal lives. These include some employment-related decisions, such as choosing a job or requesting a pay rise, but exclude workplace decisions made on behalf of an employer in a working capacity.

1.4 Report structure

The rest of this report is structured as follows:

• Chapter 2: Design and methodology. This chapter sets out the study’s design and methodology, including the strengths and limitations of the research.
• Chapter 3: Do people use official statistics to make personal decisions? This chapter combines new and existing research to demonstrate that members of the public use statistics in decision-making.
• Chapter 4: How do people use official statistics to make personal decisions? This chapter provides insights into a range of ways research participants used official statistics to make personal decisions.
• Chapter 5: What influences when people use official statistics to make personal decisions? This chapter explores the range of factors that influence whether and when people use official statistics to make personal decisions.
• Chapter 6: What would support people to use official statistics to make personal decisions? This chapter describes the recommendations, implications and next steps of the research.