Chapter 4: How do people use official statistics to make personal decisions?

Chapter summary and implications

This chapter provides insights into a range of ways that participants used official statistics to make personal decisions. Participants reported rarely relying exclusively on official statistics or the data behind them to make personal decisions; instead, they used them in combination with other sources of information, such as personal experiences and advice. This finding suggests that official statistics are often perceived as complementary rather than primary evidence but are still seen as important nevertheless, and so feed directly into personal decisions.

This chapter describes in detail how interview participants and survey respondents reported using official statistics as supplementary evidence; a means of verification; a starting point and inspiration to generate ideas and options; an objective way of evaluating options; reassurance; and supporting evidence to back their decisions.

4.1. Using statistics alongside other information as a supplementary source or for verification

Our findings suggest that interview participants and survey respondents rarely relied solely on official statistics to inform their decisions, but used them alongside other information. The survey showed that respondents reported consulting more than one source for most decisions, including personal experience and advice from friends and family (see Figure 1 in the previous chapter). In addition, free-text responses to the survey question about how statistics were used highlighted a theme of respondents describing statistics as supplementing other sources. For example, one respondent said that they used official statistics:

‘As another source of information to help in decision-making process.’ (survey respondent)

Similarly, interview participants reported using official statistics to support other information sources. For instance, in cases where their existing evidence left unanswered questions or raised concerns, participants often supplemented their anecdotal or personal sources with official statistics. As an example, it was common for those moving to new areas to consult police recorded local crime statistics for the local area to verify word-of-mouth accounts. One participant said:

‘We liked [the property] initially, until I heard a little bit about the area, which put me off, just word of mouth. Then, when I had a look at the statistics, the level of crime was high, and it just put me off to the point that that property was a no from me, just from the statistics alone.’ (female, 35–44, student support worker)

Similarly, a participant who was in the process of buying a property became concerned after noticing an unusually high number of houses for sale on the same street within a short period. They proceeded to do extensive research and investigation, including visiting the area at different times of the day and looking up articles in the local newspaper. Eventually, they found that the crime statistics revealed a high crime rate and a recent murder, ultimately leading them to reconsider their decision to buy the property:

‘The statistics, the crime statistics, did actually guide me away from it… I was led by the statistics.’ (male, 45–54, fundraising specialist)

4.2. Using statistics as a starting point to generate options or shortlists

Some interview participants reported using official statistics as a starting point to generate options and guide their decision-making. For example, some relied on baby name statistics to create a shortlist of names – either to consider or avoid:

‘It came up with a list of 50 or sometimes 20 names that it was calling popular at the time. And then we’d literally just read through them and say the names out loud, and say, “Well, what do you think of this? What do you think of this?” That’s how we pretty much come up with our shortlist.’ (male, 35–44, manager)

4.3. Using statistics to address information gaps

Participants reported that they found official statistics particularly useful when other sources of evidence were unavailable or incomplete. This was the case when moving to unfamiliar areas of the country, and first-hand insights were limited:

‘Unless you know someone who lives on that street or the area, then you’re quite reliant on this fairly broadbrush data, just to help you get a sense of the place.’ (female, 55–64, assistant)

The conclusion that official statistics grew in importance when there was little other information available is also supported by the finding, as illustrated in Figure 1 (in the previous chapter), that there was an expressed preference for using personal experiences or the views of friends and family for decision-making. When these were absent, official statistics may have become more important. The role of official statistics in filling an information gap is illustrated by responses to the free-text question about why people would use official statistics, such as:

‘I’d want to know the burglar rate and crime rates in an area if it wasn’t known to myself or family and friends.’ (survey respondent)

4.4. Using statistics as an objective comparison and to evaluate options

Interview participants also reported using statistics to evaluate options and differentiate between different alternatives. For instance, one participant reported having used the official statistics on crime as a deciding factor when choosing between two otherwise similar properties. The use of statistics as an objective comparator was also mentioned in free-text responses to the survey question about why people would use official statistics:

‘I would use official statistics in decisions like choosing a school, where to live, or a new job because they provide reliable, data-driven insights.’ (survey respondent)

Similarly, when presented with the GP Patient Survey statistics on patient satisfaction (see Appendix 8.4.), some participants welcomed their ability to provide an objective comparison of GP services, contrasting them with subjective online reviews:

‘Having that information available in that format, rather than having to go online and listen to somebody else’s opinion, you have just got the facts. Statistics, you can make a decision on it there. I’ve never seen anything like that before. I think that would be really helpful.’ (female, 35–44, advisor)

Some participants noted that this type of information would have been valuable for other decisions discussed earlier in the interview, especially when choosing schools. While the information based on official statistics that we presented to participants focused on hard indicators such as attainment and number of pupils, some participants who were parents reported that measuring pupil satisfaction – similar to the GP Patient Survey on patient satisfaction (see Appendix 8.4.) – would be more meaningful:

‘I want to know how the kids feel in the school. I want to know if they are happy there. I would like statistics around how many of those 474 children would say that they were happy going to school there.’ (female, 35–44, therapist)

4.5. Using statistics for reassurance

Interview participants reported using official statistics for reassurance, for instance to confirm that their chosen school or GP was indeed high-performing, or that an area was safe to live in:

‘The area I live in was low crime according to official stats, which help make my decision to move here.’ (survey respondent)

‘I would be looking at statistics and I would be searching, looking on police websites, trying to find out if there’s many burglaries or anything like that which might put myself at risk or make myself not feel safe when I’m walking down the street.’ (female, 25–34, advisor)

However, some participants noted challenges when official statistics did not align with more-personal accounts or recommendations. While no concrete examples of this were given, participants anticipated that it might happen, and suggested that they would likely prioritise their personal experiences in such cases:

‘I will, after this call, go and look up the [GP] surgery I’ve signed up with to see what their percentage was. But no, and if it was terrible, I’ve already signed up now, so I might keep that at the back of my mind, and then if I had a bad experience, or went, “Ooh, I’m not the only one who’s had this. Maybe I should look around more”. But I wouldn’t go, “Oh no, they’re terrible”, because my personal experience has been good, and friends’ recommendation has been good as well.’ (female, 55–64, assistant)

Similarly, another participant noted that conflicting information would make decision-making more complicated:

‘If I was already set on a school, so for example, the school that I chose, but I saw statistics that I didn’t like, it probably would have made it harder.’ (female, 25–34, manager)

4.6. Using statistics as supportive evidence

Interview participants also provided examples of using official statistics as supporting evidence when making arguments or justifying decisions. For instance, an estate agent in our sample explained that official crime statistics were often used in conversations with buyers, and they knew they often informed decisions about which areas to go for, or not go for:

‘I’ve seen people not put offers [on properties] in because of those stats before.’ (male, 25–34, estate agent)

Similarly, when discussing the hypothetical scenario of a worker deciding whether to ask for a pay rise, participants suggested that official statistics on inflation and cost of living increases could help strengthen their case to an employer, and boost their confidence in making the request:

‘I think when you have got hard evidence to back yourself up in this kind of situation, you do not feel guilty or unfair for asking for a pay rise.’ (male, 35–44, education manager)

‘It’s a stat for him to have, to back him up why he’s asking for more money.’ (female, 35–44, finance officer)

A similar sentiment was also expressed by survey respondents, who also spoke about statistics in terms of justifying requests for a pay rise:

‘Because if statistics showed I was underpaid, it would give me a good argument to ask for a pay rise.’ (survey respondent)

However, both survey respondents and interview participants also noted limitations, including among those who were positive about using the statistics to support arguments. Participants highlighted that earnings depend on multiple factors, such as on their location, employer size, years of experience and the financial situation of their company. Participants anticipated that arguments they made using statistics about inflation or sector-specific earnings may be countered with financial or organisational constraints, and feared that this local, context-specific information would trump national data:

‘If the director of the company turns round and says, well, we haven’t put up our prices, but the costs have gone up, and so we can’t actually afford to pay you any more, then it doesn’t really help very much.’ (male, 35–44, IT worker)

Additionally, while some participants recognised the potential usefulness of inflation and earnings statistics to make the case for a pay rise, they doubted whether they would actually use them in practice. This hesitation stemmed from a lack of confidence and familiarity with accessing and presenting data to their employers. As a result, participants explained that this lack of confidence meant they would not normally seek out such evidence on their own, suggesting that a lack of confidence may also contribute to limited awareness and engagement. It should be noted that this theme was only observed in conversations about making the case for a pay rise.