Context and Purpose

The aim of our systemic review of economic statistics is to identify high-level, cross-cutting issues across the Office for National Statistics (ONS)’s economic statistics and to make recommendations for change to address those issues. By looking systemically, we can make recommendations which support ONS to improve economic statistics as a whole.

Reflecting the priority that external stakeholders have given to data sources, this report focuses on the issues ONS has faced with its data sources. We will give further consideration to the effectiveness of ONS’s stakeholder engagement, and organisational factors including expertise and systems. These stages cannot be fully separated due to potential inter-dependencies; for example, issues with exploiting data sources may have their root in systems limitations. Therefore, while this interim report focuses on data sources, we refer to evidence that relates to the second and third themes, which we will report on in due course together with our assessment of the progress against the requirements in this report and the findings of the review by Sir Robert Devereux.

The review is not considering organisational efficiency and effectiveness.

This interim report presents the evidence gathered in the initial stage of the review and sets out some emerging conclusions and requirements for ONS.

Economic statistics produced by ONS

The economic statistics produced by ONS, the UK’s national statistical institute, measure the UK’s economic activity, covering the production, distribution, consumption and trade of goods and services. The statistics encompass the economic activities of households, businesses, non-profit-making institutions and government sectors as well as their trade with the rest of the world, and include measures of quantities, prices and values.

Headline official statistics within the scope of this review include:

• the National Accounts, which provide the overarching framework for many of these key economic statistics
• Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
• labour market statistics, including pay growth, employment, unemployment and inactivity rates

Regulatory oversight by OSR

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) assesses official statistics against the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. Those that comply in full are given the status of accredited official statistics (previously called “National Statistics” status).

GDP and CPI are accredited official statistics. The Labour Force Survey-based labour market statistics are currently not accredited, following the challenges that ONS has faced with the survey.

In addition to assessments, OSR undertakes systemic reviews where an accumulation of evidence indicates there might be themes best considered at a system level, such as prioritisation, gaps, overlaps, coherence and accessibility.

Reasons for undertaking this review

Three factors contributed to OSR’s decision to undertake a systemic review of the economic statistics produced by ONS.

First, we have identified common issues across our previous assessments and reviews of individual economic statistics, including our recent Spotlight on Quality assessments.

Second, the social and economic context has continued to evolve, with, for example, the pandemic adding to the long-running challenges of maintaining survey response rates and accelerating the trend of undertaking economic activity remotely using digital technologies. These trends can be seen internationally as well as in the UK.

Third, it has now been around eight years since the last high-level review of economic statistics, the Independent Review of Economic Statistics led by Sir Charlie Bean. As such, it appears appropriate to assess the progress that has been made against the recommendations in that review (set out in Annex 1).

We have developed a timeline, based on ONS-published reports and our engagement with ONS staff, of the main areas of progress on the Bean review recommendations:

2017

First Strategy for Economic Statistics and Analysis (ESAS) published, which set a strategy for exploiting administrative data sources and established a team of economists in London to strengthen engagement

Incorporation of VAT data into National Accounts

Creation of Data Science Campus

Digital Economy Act (DEA) passed and Data Acquisitions and Operations Directorate created by ONS

2018

Regional Economic Forums established

New Annual Survey of Goods and Services (ASGS) to provide improved coverage of service sector

Administrative Data Research (ADRUK) launched to provide improved access to administrative data for researchers

2019

Second ESAS published

Data from ASGS incorporated into National Accounts

Purchases Survey published (following reinstatement in 2015/16)

First set of “Faster Indicators of Economic Activity” published

Publication of statistics from PAYE Real-Time Information

(joint release with HMRC)

2020

Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey (BICS) published to track economy during pandemic and VAT data used to produce more-granular GDP data

2021/22

Double deflation introduced

Weekly publication of analysis of real-time indicators of economic and social activity

Publication of regional quarterly GDP (since suspended)

2022/23

Major improvements to trade statistics (ongoing)

2023/24

Use of rail transaction data in price statistics

2026 (plan)

Use of supermarket scanner data in price statistics (delayed from 2023/24)

Over recent years, ONS’s work has, of course, been heavily impacted by the need for new statistics to help assess the progress and impact of the pandemic. This demand has inevitably affected its capacity to push forward developments in other areas.