3. How official statistics affect public policy

Official statistics can affect UK policies throughout their lifecycle. Previously, policy was thought to occur ‘‘rationally’’, moving through various discrete stages that constitute a policy lifecycle (Hogwood and Gunn, 1984; Cabinet Office, 2003). However, Katikireddi et al. (2014), pointed out that while this stage model approach still underpins the perspectives of many policy workers, it is not necessarily supported by empirical evidence and fails to recognise constraints on rational decision-making (see Sabatier, 2007 for an overview of this work). Nevertheless, Katikireddi et al. (2014) suggested that despite such limitations, stage models do provide a useful heuristic device, with many of the processes still occurring during the policy process, although in a less linear fashion. For this work, we use a stage model approach to add structure to reflections around the use of statistics in the policy lifecycle. 

Before new policies are even proposed or discussed, official statistics can trigger an acknowledgement that something needs to change. They can also be used by interested bodies, parties, lobby groups or organisations to raise the profile of particular policy areas, which can ultimately lead to the specification of policies. Furthermore, official statistics can also directly inform other aspects of policy development, as well as the evaluation and monitoring of UK policies, as part of target setting and evaluation exercises. Each of these uses is considered in more detail in this section. 

3.1 Identifying policy need

Before a policy is developed, a need for it must be identified. Official statistics have been shown to play an important role in demonstrating where such needs exist.  

Holt (2008) reported that official statistics are used extensively in the UK to monitor the performance of public services like schools and hospitals. When policies have been shown by official statistics to be deficient, they can trigger an acknowledgement that something needs to be changed. An example of this comes from Loveday (2017), who argued for a change in fraud and cybercrime policy in England and Wales.  Loveday drew on a mixture of official statistics (including statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) crime survey) and other data (such as those from the National Fraud Intelligence Bureau, His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) reports and best practice in other countries) to reveal the scale of fraud and cybercrime offences as well as resources the police are investing in these areas. In this example, Loveday was using official statistics (among other evidence) as a vehicle to identify and highlight a perceived need for policy change. 

Official statistics can also play a role in identifying a need for policy intervention when they are consumed indirectly, that is, not from the original source. In reviewing the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Education at a Glance (EAG) report, Morgan and White (2018) examined educational statistics from 35 OECD member countries, including the UK. They highlighted what they proposed to be key challenges to education which could be addressed by policy. The authors envisaged that the results of this research could directly inform policymakers, educators, researchers and other stakeholders and guide policy development. 

Official statistics are also sometimes produced specifically to identify whether policy change is required. This is demonstrated in the paper by Lehtonen (2013), which took a critical look at UK energy sector indicators. These indicators were developed in response to a 2003 Energy White Paper, which called for more-focused analysis on four main energy policy goals: tackling climate change, ensuring the energy security of markets (reliability), promoting the competitiveness of energy markets and eradicating fuel poverty. There were four headline indicators (representing each of the main goals) and many more supporting and background indicators.  Lehtonen noted that such headline indicators draw attention to important energy policies such as those related to climate change and fuel poverty.  

In further support of official statistics being used to identify and draw attention to policy, the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA, 2009) pointed out how official statistics are often used to support third-party interests, like those of lobby groups wanting to influence government policymaking. For instance, UKSA outlined how the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy combined official data from NHS Scotland on physiotherapy waiting times with its own graduate physiotherapist unemployment estimates to make policy recommendations for expanding entrants to this profession.  

These examples demonstrate some of the ways discussed within the literature that official statistics have been used in identifying policy need. 

3.2 Informing policy development

The next stage in the policy lifecycle concerns developing policy, and there is evidence for the use of official statistics within this process too. This section provides an overview of the use of official statistics in informing policy, including raising the profile of policies, as demonstrated within the range of evidence base policy papers, which typically cite official statistics from the whole of the UK (including Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland).  

Official statistics have frequently been cited in papers and government documents as having been used to inform policy or having the potential to inform policy. Despite this, there are very few academic or research studies for which a direct causal link between the statistics and informed policies can be established, beyond the frequent assertions within many discussion sections of the potential for such a link.  

As such, the evidence in this area consists of largely ‘grey literature’. Grey literature refers to information produced outside of traditional publishing and distribution channels (such as reports, working papers, policy documents, newsletters, government documents, white papers and so on). An example of grey literature is a published consultation with end users of Welsh Government (2014) official statistics. This consultation provided reassurance of the use of official statistics in informing policy through specific (but brief) quotes from policy workers working within and beyond government throughout Wales. These quotes concerned the importance of official statistics in informing the housing, emergency service, health, education, and planning and transportation policy domains. 

There are other policy areas where official statistics have been more demonstrably used, such as fiscal and economic policy. For example, the UK Government’s fiscal policy framework (as set out in its Charter for Budget Responsibility) used labour market data as well as trade statistics for a variety of government budgeting and fiscal policy decisions (Chote and Emmerson, 2005). Furthermore, the UK Government’s Cash Access Policy Statement used official statistics to quantify access to cash and set policy objectives (His Majesty’s (HM) Treasury, 2023).  

Official statistics also directly informed economic policies during COVID-19. For example, a record decline in goss domestic product (GDP) between April and June 2020 prompted a direct response from the UK Government and the Bank of England to support businesses and workers and mitigate the negative economic impacts of the pandemic and lockdowns. This government response was exemplified by policy measures such as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS – Brien, Harari, Keep and Ward, 2022). 

Within economics, statistics have also been shown to inform policy development by highlighting what areas could be considered in policy design. This is seen in a paper by Sinfield (2018), who discussed the use of official statistics to shape social policies around UK taxation and welfare benefits. Using official data, Sinfield’s team compared public and tax spending, revealing large differences in the distribution of fiscal welfare versus conventional benefits. Their paper showed that such effects on inequality merit the consideration of these kinds of economic factors in policy design. 

Official statistics are also frequently cited in government-authored documents released to support policies, for example, documents using official statistics to show prevalence data (along with a range of other data, such as those from scientific research). These evidence-base documents are frequently released around the launch or introduction of new policies and used to evaluate and monitor existing policies. However, such documents are often unclear about the extent to which official statistics were explicitly used to inform or monitor policies versus to provide background and contextual detail (prevalence). An alternative purpose for publishing these documents may be to communicate the rationale (and later update the same metrics to communicate outcomes) of such policies to the public. Such official policy documents are also widely available, so only a few are outlined below. 

The first example of a policy paper citing the use of official statistics was written on the topic of tackling violence against women and girls (VAWG – Home Office, 2022) and supporting male victims (Home Office, 2022). Here, the paper states that official statistics from the ONS crime survey were used to understand the scale of issues affecting victims to inform policy spending commitments (such as increased funding from the Ministry of Justice for victim and witness support services). 

In presenting the evidence base for the UK Government’s Fuller Working Lives policy, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP, 2017) used official statistics from the Labour Force Survey to show where policy aims to increase employment and encourage lifelong learning. DWP also used official statistics from the Family Resources Survey to highlight some of the barriers to work that the policy is envisaged to tackle and from the Annual Population Survey to outline the challenges in developing policies to support people with health issues in working longer. 

The above section presents a flavour of how official statistics may inform policy across different topics, as described in evidence base documents produced in conjunction with the launch and evaluation of UK policies. These documents exist in relation to a range of policies, including child poverty (HM Treasury, 2004), public infrastructure (HM Government, 2021), levelling up (HM Government, 2022), fraud (HM Government, 2023), pensions (DWP, 2023) and many other policy contexts.  

3.3 Setting targets and providing accountability

Official statistics are also used within the policy lifecycle to set targets and goals and then measure the extent to which they have or have not been achieved (monitoring and evaluating policy). This happens frequently in government, but Meyer (2001) advised some caution in developing targets, as measurement does not automatically translate into policy, and instead needs to be accompanied by a commitment to use those measures to guide public policy.  

Some of the papers reviewed featured direct responses from policy workers. These anecdotal accounts suggested that policy workers do use official statistics to monitor policy. For example, Hill O’Connor, Smith and Stewart (2023) described how Sheffield city council policy workers use quarterly economic monitor updates from the ONS to review the direction of travel, monitor things that have gone up or down and to show how they are performing relative to other places. In addition, a variety of end users working both within and beyond government, spanning several Welsh policy domains and replying within the Welsh Government (2014) consultation (outlined in section 3.2), cited the use of a range of statistics in policy monitoring activities. These included environmental, population, health and economic statistics, as well as multiple suggestions of potential new statistics that could be developed to monitor a broader range of policies in the future (such as housing, energy and poverty policies). 

Holt (2008) suggested that the UK, more than other countries, monitors many public targets using statistical information to influence the performance of public sector activities. An example of this comes from the Office for Statistics Regulation’s (OSR, 2018) report on linked data, which outlined the Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) registry. The OHCA registry is drawn from linked data from a range of NHS sources (including patient outcome data) as well as official statistics from sources like the Scottish Government and National Records of Scotland (such as the Scottish morbidity record and registered deaths). OSR (2018) showed that the OHCA registry is used to monitor OHCA strategy, inform decisions about the most effective uses of community defibrillators and identify further quality improvement targets.  

Official statistics have also been used to monitor and review economic policies. For example, Pope, Freeguard and Metcalfe (2023) showed how ONS household surveys have helped to estimate the potential impacts of new taxes. Also, Schnorr-Baeker (2017) showed how official statistics have been used to review progress against the United Nations’ sustainable development goals.  

Some studies show how official statistics have also been used to benchmark other measures in policy evaluation and review. For example, West et al. (2005) aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the UK national smoking cessation policy. They found a close correspondence between sales data on the number of lozenges sold and ONS omnibus survey data on the number of smokers switching to these products.  

3.4 Communicating policy outcomes

In addition to the actual monitoring and evaluation processes themselves, publishing documents using official statistics to set out progress can also be a mechanism for communicating with the public about the outcomes and impacts of policy (see Hansard, 2024). This appears to go beyond publishing reports: official statistics are also used in this manner by members of the UK Parliament, as evidenced by numerous speeches in the House of Commons that cite official statistics when discussing policy impacts.    

This section of our review has outlined some of the mechanisms through which official statistics have been shown to affect public policy, according to the literature. In summary, evidence suggests that official statistics are used across the policy lifecycle and can be helpful in identifying where a policy is needed, the design and development of that policy and understanding how well it is performing. In addition, they can be a vehicle for explaining policy outcomes to members of the public, among others.