In our latest blog, Head of Assessment, Siobhan, discusses the challenges of regulating statistics and data from the Labour Force Survey.
Many concerns have been raised about the quality of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the statistics produced from it and the challenges ONS faces in delivering the online Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) that will replace it.
So, what are we, as the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), doing about it? Our key interventions include:
- removing the LFS’s status as accredited official statistics to signal quality concerns to users
- where there are quality concerns, removing the accreditation of statistics based on LFS data and associated Annual Population Survey (APS) data. To date, we have removed the accreditation from 14 statistical outputs
- setting requirements for ONS to improve its communication and engagement, and to consider the lessons that can be learnt from the LFS
- reviewing ONS’s work to develop an online replacement for the LFS, the TLFS
What is the Labour Force Survey?
The LFS is the main household survey providing labour market information in the UK. It is ONS’s largest regular household survey, outside of the census, and has been running since the 1970s.
Statistics calculated using the LFS (and the related Annual Population Survey, also produced by ONS) are vital to understanding the world we live in. These statistics are used to estimate the number of people employed, unemployed and economically inactive across the UK, in different parts of the UK, and for different groups, such as young people, older people and those with disabilities. These statistics also inform key economic decisions, such as interest rates set by the Bank of England and government tax and spending.
De-accrediting statistics derived from the Labour Force Survey
OSR’s primary regulatory role is to independently review statistics to ensure that they comply with the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. When they meet these standards, we give them ‘accredited official statistics’ status, and when statistics fall short, we can also remove the accreditation. We may decide on this course of action for several reasons. These could be related to concerns around the quality of the data sources used to produce the statistics, where user need is not being met or where substantial changes to the data sources and methods require us to conduct a review to ensure the quality of the data is such that they continue to be applicable for their intended use.
As we highlighted in our 2020 assessment, the response rate for the LFS has been steadily declining, and we called on ONS to address this issue and share any relevant information with users. ONS continued to develop its plans for the TLFS, which aims to address the shortcomings of the LFS.
The long-standing response rate challenges facing the LFS were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. These issues then became acute when the boost to enable pandemic operations was removed in July 2023. Following this, ONS had to suspend publication of its estimates of UK employment, unemployment and economic inactivity based on LFS data.
We removed the accreditation from LFS-based estimates and datasets in November 2023. We have also removed the accreditation from other outputs based on data from the APS. The APS is based on responses to wave 1 and wave 5 of the LFS plus a boost sample.
Monitoring ONS’s work to improve the LFS
When ONS reintroduced LFS-based labour market statistics in February 2024, we carried out a short review of these statistics. In August 2024, we carried out a follow-up review to check the progress made against the requirements set out in our initial report.
We identified four outstanding requirements, which focus on:
- communicating updates on both the LFS and TLFS in one place that users can easily access
- improved communication around the uncertainty in the data and what this means for the use of these data
- the publication of more-detailed information about the principles and quality criteria that ONS will consider in making further LFS improvements and the transition to the TLFS
- the publication of more-detailed information about ONS’s plans for improving the LFS from now until the transition to the TLFS and for transitioning to the TLFS
We will continue to closely monitor ONS’s work to improve the LFS and plan to report on progress against these requirements next year.
Reviewing ONS’s work to transform the LFS
Over the last few years, ONS has been developing a different version of the LFS using an online-first multimode approach (that is, online first, followed by telephone and use of face-to-face interviewers to encourage households to participate).
Recognising the significance of these statistics for government and economic decision-making, rather than wait to review the final statistical outputs, we have carried out regulatory work throughout their development. The aim of this work is to share early regulatory insights to help ONS in ensuring the new survey meets the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value, in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.
We have carried out our review in phases, with each focused on the most relevant elements of the Code. The aim is to assess the statistics produced from the survey against all parts of the Code once the transformed survey is fully implemented.
The first phase (which started in April 2022) focused on the design and development work ONS had planned before transitioning to the new survey approach. We published our initial findings in November 2022. In July 2023, we published an updated letter and progress report following phase two of our review. We are now entering the third phase of this work, which focuses on ONS’s engagement with users, its communication about its planned work and how it is assessing the quality and readiness of its transformed survey.
We plan to publish the outcome of phase three of our review of ONS’s LFS transformation in early 2025.
What’s next?
A key theme throughout our regulatory work on the LFS and TLFS has been the need for improved communication and clarity, specifically around plans, sources of uncertainty and quality criteria for the transformed LFS. We also called on ONS to identify what lessons can be learnt from the LFS to more effectively and transparently manage and pre-empt quality issues in the future. So, we were pleased to see the comprehensive communication of ONS’s plans and activities in its letter to the Treasury Select Committee and in the update it published on 3 December. We also welcome its engagement through the stakeholder panel and the external methodological input it has sought from Professor Ray Chambers and Professor James Brown.
We recognise there is still more to do. We will continue urging ONS to provide regular, clear, and comprehensive updates for users, as well as to seek challenge and input from key users and experts to ensure the future production of statistics that meet user needs.
We are also working to understand to what extent response issues are impacting other household surveys used across the statistics landscape. We have asked ONS to consider whether the issues, concerns, and lessons it has learnt from the LFS apply to its other surveys.
We will also carry out our own lessons learnt review, focusing on how we can best apply the Code of Practice as a tool to support transformation activities.