Summary

Why we did this Assessment

ES.1 The census is one of the most important sources of data and statistics, informing decisions about almost every aspect of life within the UK. It gives users – including government, local authorities, academics and commercial businesses – access to important information on the people and households of the UK and helps us better understand the places in which we live and work.

ES.2 The Office for Statistics Regulation has conducted assessments of the censuses produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). It is essential that the data and statistics from the censuses are reliable and provide valuable insights by meeting the rigorous standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value outlined in the Code of Practice for Statistics. The last census by NISRA was carried out in 2021.

ES.3 Our assessments have been conducted in three phases. In October 2019, we published our reports on Phase 1, focusing on the planning and consultation activities undertaken by the census offices across the UK. In November 2021, we published our Phase 2 Assessment reports, focusing on the strategies for developing and providing outputs for both the England & Wales Census 2021 and the Northern Ireland Census 2021. For Scotland Census 2022, our Phase 2 Assessment report was published in April 2023.

ES.4 This report covers the third and final phase of our Assessment, focusing on the Northern Ireland Census 2021. In 2022, the day before the first release was published, we wrote to NISRA confirming the National Statistics designation (now referred to as accredited official statistics) for the 2021 Census in Northern Ireland. At that time, our judgement was based on NISRA’s commitment to ensure that the Census 2021 statistics for Northern Ireland would be of high quality and meet the wide and varied needs of users of these data.

ES.5 This report therefore focuses on the extent to which NISRA succeeded in its commitments from 2022 and met the needs of statistics and data users with the Census 2021 outputs

What we found

ES.6 Users of the 2021 Census outputs reported a high level of satisfaction, driven in part by NISRA’s open and collaborative approach throughout the census process. The positive user feedback highlighted in this report reveals significant areas of success and strength, especially in public engagement and the unparalleled ability of users to access and analyse the statistics through a variety of innovative dissemination methods. These accomplishments were achieved despite the challenge of delivering Census 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ES.7 We commend NISRA for the way it has worked with key users and for its recognition of the crucial role that census statistics play in both decision making and describing the society in which we live. NISRA has adopted a collaborative and transparent approach to engaging with this Assessment.

ES.8 Overall, NISRA has responded well to the requirements of our Phase 2 Assessment. NISRA’s comprehensive approach to addressing the requirements included effective user engagement, the provision of sufficient documentation on quality and methods, and the publication of timely, accessible and flexible census In particular, the Flexible Table Builder has proven to be a successful innovation which has helped expand the public ownership and use of the census results. We regard this tool as an example of good practice that other statistics producers should seek to emulate.

ES.9 Our key findings are as follows:

• • NISRA’s census outputs were released in an orderly way supported by its proactive and clear communication with users.
  • High response rates, sound methods and NISRA’s extensive quality assurance of the census data mean that, overall, users trust and have confidence in the quality of the estimates.
  • NISRA has identified the topic areas most likely to have been affected by the 2021 Census being carried out under the unique circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic. Further detail is needed to fully support the ongoing use of those statistics impacted.
  • NISRA has shown that it understands the public value of the census outputs and the role of statistics in society. NISRA has collaborated well with ONS and NRS and is currently working with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) to produce all-Ireland outputs for 2021/2022. NISRA should continue to collaborate with relevant organisations in the production of census statistics, particularly to improve comparability of outputs where possible.
  • NISRA’s public engagement and publication of supporting resources have increased awareness of the outputs and helped users to understand the census results.
  • NISRA has developed a range of innovative and intuitive tools that have enabled users to access and maximise their use of the 2021 outputs and helped to unlock public curiosity in the census results.

ES.10 We have identified several areas for further improvement, building on the exemplary actions that NISRA has already taken in response to our requirements to date. We recommend that:

1. • Given the insight gleaned from the Census Quality Survey on topic questions, we expect NISRA to use its 2021 results, in particular those questions with a lower than 85% agreement rate, to inform any future development of any survey questions, including the ‘Ever worked’ question.
   • To support the appropriate use of census data affected by the pandemic, NISRA should review its explanations and be more explicit in its guidance to help users understand what weight can be placed on affected statistics in decision making. In addition, signposting to other relevant topic statistics available in 2021 beyond those based on census could also provide users with a more holistic view of a particular topic. This work should be completed within three months of the publication of this report.
   • NISRA should continue to build on the work already planned with producers in the rest of the UK and the Republic of Ireland, as such cross-working would provide added public value to the availability and comparability of census statistics across jurisdictions.
   • To aid transparency and help manage expectations, NISRA should keep users updated on ONS-led plans to develop and publish UK-level estimates for key census categories. These updates should include information about anticipated timelines and what outputs are being developed in partnership with ONS and NRS.
   • NISRA should review the census section of its website to consider how navigability and the user interface can be further improved to enhance the user experience and increase the accessibility of the statistics.

Next steps

ES.11 The census currently forms the backbone of the UK statistical system. NISRA’s recently published Census 2021 general report demonstrates the organisation’s commitment to reviewing and learning from its approach to this important method of data collection. As part of planning for the future provision of population statistics in Northern Ireland, it is imperative that NISRA continue to identify and evaluate what lessons can be learnt from Census 2021.

ES.12 In addition to considering the above recommendations, NISRA plans to carry out a Census 2021 benefits realisation exercise, which will be crucial in ensuring the voices and needs of users are heard in this process. While producers explore the future of population statistics in the UK, NISRA should consider how it can plan and deliver population statistics for Northern Ireland that meet the standards of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.