Looking ahead to the future

Learning lessons

3.1 Taking the time to reflect on how well the 2021 Census was planned and delivered is an important part of the 10-year census cycle to identify any lessons that can be learnt for the future. With that in mind, we welcome NISRA’s recent publication of its Census 2021 general report.

3.2 NISRA’s general report details how the census was conducted in Northern Ireland and looks back at what was done to deliver Census 2021, highlighting the successes and areas where lessons can be learnt for the future. In planning for Census 2021, NISRA took account of lessons learnt from the review and its evaluation of Census 2011 and responded to changes in society, such as an increasingly ageing and more diverse population, to ensure that everyone was counted.

3.3 Census 2021 in Northern Ireland was carried out during a global health pandemic. The report discusses the impact of the pandemic, and the anticipated changes due to Brexit, on Census 2021 operations and delivery. NISRA faced logistical challenges in its operations that involved direct face-to-face contact. As the general report highlights, many of the planned face-to-face activities moved online or were cancelled, which did lead to some gaps, for example providing in-person assistance for respondents completing their census return.

3.4 There were also some unexpected benefits; for instance, the desk-based check of the Census Address Register using administrative datasets and geographic information system software saved time and money. The move to online training for field staff meant that the training was timely, consistent and easier to arrange logistically.

3.5 NISRA’s evaluation of the impact of the pandemic and the broader lessons learnt from Census 2021 provide valuable insight for NISRA to use in its future planning. It is also good to see that NISRA has planned a census benefits realisation exercise, which will include a census user satisfaction survey, face-to-face interviews and follow-up discussions with key stakeholders. The exercise will provide valuable insight on the utility of the data from a user perspective and identify any data gaps to help NISRA plan for the future. Publishing the outcomes of this work and any planned actions NISRA takes in response will ensure that users’ expectations are managed in a transparent way.

The future of population statistics in the UK

3.6 The future of population statistics across the UK is currently being considered by each of the government administrations. In 2014, the UK Government set out its ambition that ‘censuses after 2021 will be conducted using other sources of data and providing more timely statistical information’. In 2018, ONS committed to respond to this ambition with a recommendation to government with the ONS Future of Population and Migration Statistics programme. ONS conducted a public consultation in 2023 to understand the extent of population data user needs in England and Wales. The UK Statistics Authority Board will make a recommendation on the future of the census on advice from the National Statistician.

3.7 The outcome of the UKSA recommendation on the future of the census in England and Wales will significantly impact the broader UK statistical landscape. The census is the backbone of the UK statistical system, and any decisions around its future must be carefully considered, including what impact it will have on devolved governments and other statistical releases that heavily rely on census data. Strong collaboration between the three statistical offices continues to be crucial during this period of systemic uncertainty.

3.8 As demonstrated by NISRA’s delivery of the 2021 Census (and in the delivery of other censuses across the UK), administrative data has a role in supporting and enhancing the collection of data held about our population. The future role of these data is yet to be determined. NISRA’s first step to prioritise understanding user need in its planning is the right way forward. Putting users at the heart of any decision making should lead to the continued delivery of population statistics that are trustworthy and of high quality and value.