Annex A: Theories of change
Credible and Rigorous Regulator
Inputs/Activities
- Code of Practice for Statistics
- Develop constructive relationships with users and producers of statistics
- Strengthen internal quality assurance through peer review, internal review and external challenge
- Set clear timeframes within which producers should deliver requirements or report publicly on actions and progress
- Tailor communications with different audiences to maximise influence and engagement
- Work with statistical producers to identify high-priority statistics that we have not reviewed for some time and develop a prioritisation tool to support this approach
- Explore whether a greater degree of self-assessment might enhance the TQV of official statistics
- Regulatory guidance responds to emerging change in the world, building on thought leadership and research
Outputs
- Evidence-based reviews of compliance with the Code, including of key statistics not reviewed in some time
- Regulatory work programme
- Public reporting on progress against our requirements, including a register of requirements
- Regulatory guidance
- AOS list including prioritisation of forthcoming compliance reviews
- Tool for self-evaluation
Outcomes
- A clear approach to our work programme, consistent and clear communication
- Recommendations/requirements are taken forward effectively and in a timely manner, improving TQV
- A more robust approach to regulating AOS
- People have confidence in our judgements
- Stronger ownership of compliance by producers
Impacts
- Statistics better meet the needs of users
- Producers will be open and focus on improvement
- Users will understand the strengths and limitations of statistics
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System Catalyst
Inputs/Activities
- Encourage open engagement between producers, users and the public to strengthen relevance
- Identify and communicate systemic risks and opportunities across the statistical system
- Identify and share good practice, promoting and supporting innovation and responsiveness
- Champion curiosity and adaptability
- Support producers to think through how to apply the principles of the Code in new contexts
- We undertake thought leadership, research and develop regulatory guidance
Outputs
- Annual State of the Statistical System report and other systemic reviews
- Targeted guidance and communications on emerging issues
- Convening activities
- Publications from our research programme and associated recommendations
Outcomes
- Producer organisations use our guidance and supportive activities to increase innovation and adoption of new tools and responsiveness, including rapid response to risk
- Evidence of adherence of the Code as the backbone of good statistical production
- Our recommendations drive change
- OSR is recognised as an authority on cross-system issues, is brought into relevant conversations and has a clear public position on how the statistical system should evolve
- Producers are increasingly curious and open in their engagement
Impacts
The risks and opportunities facing the system will be clearer to users and producers, and we will have supported positive change across the system
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Public Use of Statistics
Inputs/Activities
- Voluntary adoption of the Code of Practice for Statistics
- Intelligent transparency programme
- Casework function
- Public involvement and engagement
- Code of Practice for Statistics and development of approaches to monitoring the Standards for Public Use
- Research projects
- Building Partnerships programme and work with other bodies to address broader issues of public use of evidence.
- Uncertainty and dashboard guidance
Outputs
- VA sign up
- Approaches to monitoring the Standards for Public Use
- Annual casework report, issues log, outcome letters/responses
- Explainers and blogs on our standards and common pitfalls
- Deliver training on intelligent transparency
- Published research reports and refreshed definition of the public good
- Building Partnerships framework
- Published guidance for communicating statistics and dashboards
Outcomes
- An active and growing voluntary adoption community who understand how to present statistics that are grounded in TQV
- Good practice around intelligent transparency and minimised misleadingness
- Positive feedback from complainants about accessibility/ease of raising casework and reduced volume of casework in repeat areas
- Improved understanding across the statistical system of how statistics can serve the public good
Impacts
- Strengthened public confidence in the public value and role of official statistics and wider analysis
- Statistics will be used transparently in a way that is intelligible to users and that is in line with our principle of intelligent transparency
- Wider appreciation for meeting standards around communication of analysis across multiple sectors, beyond government, where analysis is of potential public interest
Enhance our own Trustworthiness, Quality and Value
Inputs/Activities
- Processes and guidance that ensure transparency and consistency in our approach
- Refresh website and approach to communication
- Tools to measure the impact of our work
- Clear boundaries and policies to show independence
- Recruit and train people so we have the skills we need to deliver
- Surveys to understand team well-being
- Organisational leadership in line with our strategy and values
Outputs
- Central catalogue of guidance, templates and learning materials
- New website
- Published OSR Evaluation Strategy and tools and frameworks to measure and publicly report on our impact
- Framework for impartiality, independence and quality standards
- OSR People Plan
Outcomes
- Improved engagement and use of our public materials
- Independence isn’t questioned and OSR is seen as trusted
- Progress against the OSR Strategy is measurable and OSR can be held accountable, and an evaluation culture is embedded
- Our values are embedded
- Skilled and confident workforce, with career development opportunities and an inclusive and diverse culture
- OSR is a great place to work
- Robust recruitment and succession planning
Impacts
- We remain a credible, capable and responsive regulator – one that not only holds others to account but also is also accountable to others. By embedding TQV in our culture and operations, we strengthen our ability to deliver meaningful change and uphold the role of statistics in public life.