Review of Assessment of salmon stocks and fisheries statistics

Overview

At the time of this report, the statistics from the Assessment of Salmon Stocks and Fisheries in England and Wales reports are not published as official statistics. Despite this it was agreed with the producers that carrying out a short review, to offer advice, support and recommendations, would help best manage proposed changes to the methods and reporting for these statistics in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Statistics on salmon stocks and fisheries are compiled by staff from the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas); Environment Agency; and Natural Resources Wales/Cyfoeth Naturiol Cymru. They present the status of salmon stocks and fisheries in England and Wales, including information on stock levels, catches and exploitation rates.

They are collated annually to assist the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) in providing scientific advice to the North Atlantic Salmon Conservation Organisation (NASCO). They also enable the UK and Welsh governments to set conservation limits, targets and fishing byelaws for salmon rivers and inform fishery managers and anglers.

Why we did this review

The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) carried out an initial review of these statistics in 2022 following concerns raised with us by users of the statistics. These user concerns focused on the producers’ lack of communication around their longstanding plans to review the estimation methods, which were first set out in 2004.

The purpose of this second review is to provide advice, support and recommendations to help the producers manage methods changes in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics (the Code), to support user confidence in the statistics during the period of change, and to maximise the value of future improvements. It has focused on the three broad areas that will be central to ensuring the planned changes are developed, communicated and delivered in line with the Code:

Changes to methods: How users and stakeholders have been informed of the proposed changes to methods and of their potential impact on the statistics; how users have been assured that the proposed methods are sound and represent the best available estimates; and the opportunities for users to feed into decision-making on methods.
Changes to reporting: How users and stakeholders have been considered in the proposed changes to reporting; how they have been informed about the changes and assured that their needs will continue to be met; and how outputs will be accessible and provide clear insights that serve the public good.
Institutional governance and statistical leadership: How decision-making processes are enacted; and the transparent and orderly release of statistics.

Findings

Changes to methods

There is a longstanding commitment to improving these statistics through proposed changes to methods and reporting. These changes aim to improve the quality, accessibility, transparency and timeliness of data. Proposed new methods have been tested and the results compared to existing approaches, including a comparison of the output of stock risk assessments. Proposed changes to methods should result in a more reproducible approach.

No clear timeline was historically provided for changes which resulted in uncertainty for users and potentially damaged user confidence in the current approach. There has been targeted engagement about the changes with key stakeholders, such as the England Fisheries Group and the Angling Trust, while more-detailed work on the methods is carried out. The public consultation on the methods planned for later this year offers an important opportunity for wider engagement.

Changes to reporting

The statistics comprise two detailed but lengthy documents published in autumn every year, reflecting that the original users of these reports were the scientific working groups of ICES and NASCO. In April 2024, the Cefas team began publishing a new interim release of the data which means that more-timely provisional data are now available to users at the same time as the international bodies.

Some elements of the Code are already being met, such as providing detailed information on quality and methodology and making data available for reuse. However, the presentation of the statistics greatly limits their accessibility and value. Additions over time have made both documents long and text heavy, making it difficult to find key information such as quality notes or improvement timelines. We note that the Environment Agency’s publication Salmonid and freshwater fisheries statistics, which feeds into these statistics, is published in html and has a more accessible layout.

The producers told us that they would like to streamline the annual report to be more focused and move to publishing data via a web-based system, similar to a Scottish Government R-shiny app system, which would allow individuals to interrogate the data for a particular river without navigating the full dataset. The producers told us that they plan to engage with users about potential changes to reporting to understand their needs, although they did not specify how or when this would occur.

Institutional governance and statistical leadership

As official statistics producers, each of the organisations responsible for producing the statistics has a lead official or Head of Profession for Statistics who is responsible for deciding on methods and content of official statistics and advocating for the application of the Code of Practice for Statistics. More could be done in all three producer organisations to increase understanding and application of the Code, and to highlight its benefits; the launch of Code 3.0 provides a good opportunity to do so.

Some standards of the Code under its core principle of Trustworthiness are not currently being met for these statistics – specifically those relating to the orderly release of the statistics and the accessibility of the publication as an output. The producers told us that changes to publication slots have affected the predictability of release, which is a core requirement of the Code. Publishing these estimates as official statistics has the potential to foster trust within the user community and support their appropriate use.

Our judgement

Publishing these estimates as official statistics has the potential to foster trust within the user community and support their appropriate use. In order to support user confidence in the process of updating the methods, we recommend that the planned changes in methods and subsequent reporting should be managed in line with the Code principles of Trustworthiness, Quality and Value.

We recommend that the producer organisations make improvements in four broad areas:

Recommendation 1: To protect public trust, support appropriate use and strengthen independence in line with the Code, the lead officials should undertake and publish a clear evaluation of whether the Assessment of Salmon Stocks and Fisheries in England and Wales should be produced and published as official statistics.
Recommendation 2: To maintain user confidence during changes to methods, reduce surprises and ensure statistics continue to meet user needs, producer organisations should focus on improving the transparency of their communications around future developments.
Recommendation 3: To further enable appropriate interpretation and reuse, ensure inclusivity and be transparent about methods and uncertainty, producer organisations should prioritise making improvements to the clarity and accessibility of the statistics and supporting quality information.
Recommendation 4: To embed the Code, strengthen quality culture and improve collaboration and challenge, producer organisations should focus on strengthening their engagement with users, sponsor departments and the wider Government Statistical Service.

Next steps

These recommendations are intended to strengthen public confidence in, and increase the value of, the statistics on salmon stocks and fisheries in England and Wales, in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics, with a particular emphasis on the planned changes to statistical methods and the forthcoming public consultation.

We expect the producers to report back to us publicly on their progress in addressing the recommendations within 6 months.

We will continue to engage with the Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales and Cefas and provide support as they take these recommendations forward. We will review progress made as part of our ongoing engagement with these organisations and work with the producers in the post-consultation period as they implement changes to the statistical methods and outputs based on the consultation feedback they receive.