Review of the UK trade statistics

Annex 1: Actions that ONS has taken in response to the 2015 assessment report requirements

Requirement 1

ONS should:

Build on its improving engagement with users to develop a thorough understanding of the range of potential uses of UK Trade statistics and publish information about the types of decisions that they inform
Publish details of its user engagement strategy and outline how it will continue to strengthen its ongoing dialogue with users of UK Trade statistics, and improve its response to ad hoc queries
Publish the information that it has gathered about users’ experiences of its UK Trade statistics and explain how it is responding to what it has learned

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

In response to this assessment, ONS published a 2016 trade development plan and a 2017 trade development plan, which set out ONS’s approach to engaging with users of UK trade statistics. ONS has published an account of users and usage of trade statistics. This followed the results of the UK Trade Survey in 2015.

In its 2017 plan, ONS detailed how user input from a 2016 workshop, user group meetings and bilateral discussions continued to be used to prioritise its development work (quality assurance of data and improving the transparency of production systems).

ONS published detail on the users and uses of trade statistics in its development plans: 2020 trade development plan and UK trade and investment development plans update: achievements and forward look: October 2022. The 2022 document states that the update aims to give users a better understanding of achievements to date and upcoming work. It is also stated that ONS welcomes feedback.

ONS engages with its key users of the Bank of England, HM Treasury, the Department for Business and Trade and HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) in quarterly user group meetings and on an ad hoc basis.

ONS has engaged more widely with users of National Accounts data through the Quarterly Review of Accounts Stakeholder Group and through its Economic Forum.

Furthermore, in the run up to the EU exit, ONS increased its engagement activities further, establishing a quarterly trade group for expert users and meeting with this group’s members individually to discuss data and provide analytical support on trade related issues.

A recent update on ONS theme-based user engagement (July 2024) includes trade as a key theme.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

Over the last several years, ONS has significantly improved its stakeholder engagement. ONS increased transparency around its approach to user engagement and considered users’ input to develop its trade statistics publications and discuss future developments. It has also provided information on recent engagement activities.

The development plans that ONS published all included sections on user engagement.

Updates provided to OSR and the Regulation Committee focused on how ONS has included users in the development work. Users told that OSR they are happy with the level and frequency of engagement from ONS.

ONS should ensure that when updating the methods documents, it also pays attention to the user section, including information on how users have informed decisions

Requirement 2

ONS should:

Publish coherent, detailed accessible information about the methods used to produce UK Trade and UK Trade in Goods by CPA, including:

Presenting the overall framework for UK Trade statistics, and the contribution of international trade to the UK economy
Explaining how UK trade is used in producing Balance of Payments and UK National Accounts; and outlining any reservations or derogations in relation to International Regulations
Explaining how the monthly estimates are produced from monthly, quarterly and annual sources and how estimates by country and product are compiled, including the rationale for choices

We suggest that in meeting this Requirement, ONS does not seek to replicate existing methods information presented by itself, HMRC and others, but improves the signposting to that information and sets it within the context of monthly UK Trade statistics

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS’s updated monthly UK trade Statistical bulletins provide users with increased detail on the level of trade in goods by country and product and helpful information on the dynamics of the trade account to assist users’ interpretation.

The UK Trade methodology document linked from the monthly statistics provides a detailed description and links to the use of these statistics in the Pink Book and the National Accounts (Section 3), including reference to the difference in National Accounts and HMRC measurement of UK trade. The same note covers the construction of monthly estimates from varying sources and the different measures.

There is also the Quality Methodology and Information (QMI) document, which provides more up-to-date information and detail on the Blue Book and Pink Book (National Accounts).

ONS has also published articles on the effects of the EU exit on data collection in 2023 regarding import estimates and in 2024 regarding the structural break from 2021 due to a change in data collection.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

ONS updated its methods and quality information in its QMI, most recently in May 2021. This document should be reviewed more regularly to reflect the most up-to-date state of affairs (for example, the changes to the International Trade in Services (ITIS) survey). There could be more clarity on the difference between the UK Trade methodology document and the UK Trade QMI report, as both are still linked in the bulletin. Alternatively, ONS should consider if having one document would be clearer for users.

We welcome the publication of articles on trade-related issues, such as the recent article analysing the UK’s trade relationship with the USA.

It is good to see that the ONS has published extensive information on the effects of the EU exit on trade in goods.

When updating the QMI, ONS should consider providing more information on how HMRC trade in goods data are transformed.

Requirement 3

ONS should:

Publish information about the quality of the UK Trade statistics that:

Explains the strengths and limitations of the statistics in relation to uses
Describes potential sources of error and bias and how it mitigates for them, including investigating and explaining the different sources of volatility in the monthly estimates
Presents appropriate measures of quality
Presents information around all the dimensions of the European Statistical Systems definition of quality

Appropriately references relevant quality information published by other statistical producers – for example HMRC and ONS for trade in goods and trade in services and Eurostat Quality Statements

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS’s UK Trade QMI describes the strengths and weaknesses of UK trade data and covers statistical issues such as sample and non-sample bias and trade asymmetries (further details on these data are discussed in Requirement 6). There are links to relevant HMRC webpages, and clear reference is made to the European Statistical System’s five dimensions of quality.

The International Trade in Services QMI was published in January 2022 and reviewed in October 2024. The QMI documents and other documentation covering related statistics are consistent.

Caveats about data are noted in the QMI.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

ONS has been clear in its presentation of the strengths and limitations of these data, including in its guidance on the interpretation and treatment of monthly estimates and the status of contributing data sources, such as data arising from the International Passenger Survey, which was affected by changes in data collection techniques during the COVID-19 pandemic.

ONS has improved its referencing to other statistical producers working on trade.

However, the QMI should be updated and contain appropriate discussion of the impact of the EU exit and reference relevant articles that discuss the issue in-depth. ONS should also present more information on the uncertainty and revisions of the trade in services estimates so that users understand the limitations when using these estimates.

Requirement 4

ONS should:

Publish information about its strengthened quality assurance arrangements including its assurance arrangements for administrative data and survey sources used to produce UK Trade, taking into consideration the Authority’s Administrative Data Quality Assurance Toolkit. ONS should:

Present a comprehensive up-to-date picture of sources and how they are used in the production of UK trade estimates, including an indication of their relative contribution to the final estimates
Outline the operational context of the sources in plain language, and what checks are carried out by the data providers in relation to those sources
Publish information about the data flows, highlighting the points of risk and how it mitigates for those risks, including information about risks in its processing systems and highlighting its own quality assurance checks
Explain how it assures itself of the quality of information provided from the different sources; including any formal agreements and data supplier engagement
Explain how it has learned lessons and strengthened its own quality assurance checks and in particular its sense-checking of the statistics following the errors identified by users in 2014

Detail its judgement about the quality of the statistics, and the rationale for this judgement, taking account of what it has learned from reviewing its quality assurance arrangements

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

In February 2017, ONS published, in line with OSR’s Quality Assurance of Administrative Data (QAAD) Toolkit, an article entitled Quality Assurance of Administrative Data used in Trade Statistics, addressing the detail of Requirement 4.

These data quality improvements have been integrated into a new trade statistics production system, which is discussed in further detail in Requirement 7.

As part of its 2018 UK trade statistics transformation article, ONS published detail on its increased collaboration with HMRC, which sought to ensure greater quality assurance and detail around estimates of trade in goods (Section 2).

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

ONS made significant efforts first to improve and develop relationships with data suppliers and subsequently to apply OSR’s QAAD framework to the many sources of statistics that make up the inputs to trade estimates. Importantly, ONS encouraged upstream data suppliers, including HMRC, to implement the framework for trade in goods data.

Considering the errors that ONS found in HMRC data in January 2025, ONS should consider whether any changes to procedures and communications are required to reduce the risk of future errors.

Requirement 5

ONS should:

Publish a short summary paper that: explains its current assessment of the quality of statistics on UK trade in services in respect of meeting user needs; outlines its strategy and broad timeline for identifying and addressing weaknesses in the statistics; and explains how it will measure success in meeting user needs – ONS should submit this paper alongside the current National Statistics Quality Review.

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS published the details of its strategy for addressing trade in services data in its 2020 trade development plan. This includes detail on how the ITIS (the main data source for trade in services) has been and will be improved.

Details on standard errors arising from the ITIS survey were included in the International trade in services, UK: 2016 publication on 31 January 2018.

Cumulative impacts (including the doubling of the ITIS sample) on trade balances and the Blue Book were covered in the UK trade data impact assessment from new developments article (2018). A further article on the impact of Blue Book developments on UK trade data was published in 2019, and the most recent publication of ITIS in 2020 also contains a table with standard errors.

ONS then published a follow up on its strategy and development plans in October 2022, which discusses the improvements made to trade in services data since 2020.

A detailed overview of the methods changes to ITIS 2020 was published in the article International trade in services, overview of methods changes: 2020 (2022).

Most recently, the ITIS QMI was updated in 2024.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

The 2020 and 2022 development plans clearly set out the plan and mention quality in most sections of the reports. The separate article from 2022 has a clear overview of all the changes made to the ITIS.

ONS recognised and directly addressed users’ concerns and requests for greater levels of detail on the quality of trade in services data and in 2016 doubled the size of the ITIS survey sample from 1,100 to 2,250 businesses per quarter.

OSR welcomes the increase in sample size, which, as well as increasing the accuracy of headline estimates, also enabled further breakdowns to be produced. The detail on service activities has also increased. This development is an important step in reducing asymmetries.

Some users told OSR that the size of the revisions makes it hard to use the monthly trade in services estimates. ONS should work to improve its communication of uncertainty of the estimates to users and look into adjusting for any potential bias in the revisions.

Requirement 6

ONS should:

Increase its awareness of the statistics published by other countries in relation to trade with the UK, and use this information to sense-check the UK Trade statistics.

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS has published multiple articles on trade asymmetries:

ONS also commissioned an academic at Harvard University to examine bias in UK trade flow estimates. In February 2021, the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence published the paper Using a model to understand more about UK trade in services asymmetries. This paper uses a methodology developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the World Trade Organisation to produce a reconciled asymmetry dataset for UK trade in services.

ONS set out its asymmetries strategy, aiming to:

understand the largest trade in services import asymmetries
drive improvements that lead to a reduction in trade in services import asymmetries
embed asymmetries considerations
lead international engagement with priority bilateral partners and OECD
improve asymmetries modelling

The monthly bulletin, QMI and methodology also contain information about asymmetries and reference the HMRC’s work on trade in goods asymmetries.

The ITIS QMI says that for the 2020 collection onwards, the ITIS sample was expanded to include microbusinesses (those with an employment count below 10). Data from microbusinesses are not yet included in official trade in services statistics, but an analysis of the impact of this change on balanced gross domestic product (GDP) estimates is expected to be published in autumn 2025.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

ONS has made significant progress in investigating trade asymmetries, and it has been able to quantify a significant amount of the trade in services asymmetries. We are encouraged by the international effort to advance this work, in which ONS plays a leading role.

As part of the strategic aim to reduce imports asymmetries in trade in services, it is good to see that ONS has widened coverage of enterprises in its ITIS survey to those employing between 0 and 9 people.

ONS should progress its plans to synthesise all the work it has done on asymmetries, for example in a user guide, to provide a comprehensive overview for users about how to navigate asymmetries when interpreting the trade estimates.

Requirement 7

ONS should:

Review and document the weaknesses in its processing system capability, within the context of documented user needs, and set out its plan for addressing those weaknesses
As part of the information that it publishes about its quality assurance arrangements, explain for users how it mitigates known system risks and ensures sufficient time for assurance and sense-checking activities.

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS rebuilt its trade statistics production systems to transform and streamline the production of trade in goods and trade in services statistics. The new strategic platform is flexible, transparent and efficient, facilitating improved quality assurance and analysis.

The new systems are now used in the monthly, quarterly and annual production of trade and economic statistics, are more efficient and provide more transparent production and automated quality assurance processes.

The systems also allow early identification of missing data or anomalous values through automated quality assurance consistency and reliability data checks. Processing data through a strategic platform has increased the speed of processing significantly, creating added time for quality assurance and the application of analytical capability in the processing round.

ONS’s 2017 trade development plan, Quality Assurance of Administrative Data used in Trade Statistics (2017) report, article on UK trade statistics transformation (2018) and UK trade and investment development plans update: achievements and forward look (2022) document the developments in system capability and the mitigation of known historical production risks.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

ONS’s approach to addressing the pattern of errors, many of which were found by users and led to the de-accreditation of these statistics, was robust. ONS’s first efforts were centred around existing production systems, which were limited in their ability to allow effective quality assurance or the speedy investigation of errors. The new system has mitigated many of the known historical system risks, whilst providing users with increased detail on trade in goods and services.

The published reports cover this requirement very well. The QAAD report provides a detailed and comprehensive quality assurance process. It is good to see that ONS has clearly continued to consider systems and QA processes in its development work.

However, some errors still occurred in the past year. For example, ONS discovered an error in the trade in services data during their QA in March 2025. This error was a result of issues with the legacy processing system. ONS should continue to monitor its systems and QA processes to reduce the chances of errors occurring

Requirement 8

ONS should:

Publish a development programme for UK Trade statistics that:

Sets out the priority projects, including the rationale for those priorities, a broad timeline, and an assessment of their likely impact
Is appropriately resourced
Explains how it will keep users regularly updated on progress

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS published five iterations of its development plan, commencing in 2016:

These plans set out the priorities, timelines, progress and plans of the trade development programme.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

Since our previous assessment, ONS has embarked on a substantial effort to create a development programme that has continued over the past 9 years.

ONS’s plans include working with international partners to triangulate UK data and building relationships to focus on issues such as trade asymmetries.

ONS should consider providing an update to cover the ongoing future development plans outlined in the 2022 update. ONS should ensure that it continues to have the appropriate resource and expertise to further its development work.

Requirement 9

ONS should:

Improve the commentary in UK Trade and supporting analytical pieces so that it aids users’ interpretation of the statistics by:

Presenting a clear narrative about UK Trade, with a balanced representation of trade in both goods and services, including considering how it can present more detail about trade in services
Presenting prominent information about uncertainty around the estimates and cautioning users appropriately about focusing on latest monthly estimates
Providing plain language descriptions and contextual information about UK Trade
Presenting a narrative that helps users to draw meaningful conclusions from the analysis presented, including presenting the latest statistics within the context of a longer time series
Setting UK Trade against the range of trade and balance of payments statistics published by the ONS and other organisations, including presenting international comparisons and more prominent information about why ONS and HMRC trade in goods statistics differ

As part of meeting this requirement ONS should:

Consider, in consultation with users, whether it would aid interpretation, and represent a better use of resources, to include information about trade in goods by activity within UK Trade, rather than as a separate National Statistics output. ONS might also helpfully consider the relationship of UK Trade with International Trade in Services
Work with colleagues producing Balance of Payments and International Trade in Services and with HMRC to provide helpful explanatory information to support the coherent presentation and wider use of the portfolio of official statistics about UK trade

Consider the points detailed in annex 1 and annex 2

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS has developed its monthly trade bulletin, providing a robust narrative for UK trade, including easy access to trade in services publications and guidance on the strengths and weaknesses of the data and interpretation of volatile monthly data.

The bulletin covers the following elements set out in the requirements:

a narrative including goods and services
caution around the uncertainty of the monthly estimates
a helpful glossary explaining technical terms in plain language
relevant contextual information, including quarterly trends, to set the results within a longer time series
links to related content, such as articles published by ONS on trade, information about the balance of payments, and HMRC webpages

Included in the monthly bulletin UK trade: December 2024 are links to bespoke articles, for example on the structural break from 2021.

ONS no longer publishes trade in goods by activity as a separate publication but instead provides a link to the relevant dataset in the bulletin.

Additional information on the differences with the HMRC data as well as on the balance of payment statistics and the Pink Book is provided in the QMI.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

ONS has put a lot of work into overhauling the contents of the UK trade statistical bulletin, which now better reflects the importance of trade in services in total UK trade. ONS has enhanced the commentary to bring together a narrative for trade and short-term economic indicators.

Some users would like to see more information about what is driving changes in the estimates in the monthly bulletin. ONS should consider working with users to identify any gaps and see if it can meet user needs.

ONS should also consider if it could do more work on presenting the uncertainty of the monthly trade in services estimates, which are subject to large revisions.

Requirement 10

ONS should:

Improve the accessibility of UK Trade and UK Trade in Goods by CPA through ONS’s website by:

Signposting clearly to users how the statistical reports relate to each other and to other trade and economic statistics
Providing users with clear information about what data on UK trade in goods and services is available, where and when, including data published as part of other ONS statistical releases or by other organisations such as HMRC
Ensuring that data that ONS releases on its website as a result of ad hoc requests is clearly labelled and easy for users of UK Trade to find, and considering if any of this data could be published as standard as part of the statistical reports

Using consistent and clear labelling and numbering of tables within the statistical report and in Excel

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

The information on all aspects of trade in the monthly bulletin UK trade: December 2024 is clear and easy to find.

The accessibility of information on trade-related issues has been improved through the coverage of all aspects of trade in the revised UK trade bulletin. Links have been provided to detailed goods and services data and wider trade issues and topics relevant to the trading environment (for example, the EU exit).

The ONS website has a specific search function for ad hoc publications, which makes it easy to search for trade-related ad hoc data.

All trade datasets have a clear and consistent cover page in Excel.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

Since the previous assessment in 2015, ONS has redeveloped its website, making significant efforts to improve the accessibility of trade statistics. It is good to see that all relevant datasets and documents are now easily accessible directly from the monthly bulletin.

ONS should inform users of any changes to the labelling in the datasets in Excel so that users can adjust their processes, which might rely on specific labels.

ONS should inform users about how the bulletin might change as a result of the new ONS website.

Requirement 11

ONS should:

Publish and maintain a rolling twelve-month timetable of UK Trade and UK Trade in Goods by CPA release dates

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS includes dates of UK trade as part of its release calendar.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

ONS introduced a rolling programme of updating the release calendar soon after the publication of Assessment Report 304 in 2015.

Requirement 12

ONS should:

Review the list of those with pre-release access, with a view to minimising the numbers of individuals included, and inform the Statistics Authority of the justification for each inclusion.

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

As of 1 July 2017, pre-release access to ONS statistics was removed in all but exceptional circumstances.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

This requirement is no longer applicable as ONS withdrew pre-release access to all its statistics in July 2017.

Requirement 13

ONS should:

Update its Statement of Administrative Sources to clearly and accurately list all of the administrative data sources used to produce its UK Trade Statistics

Actions taken by ONS to meet the requirement

ONS updated its Statement of Administrative Sources in 2016.

OSR’s evaluation of the evidence

Requirement met.

ONS updated the Statement of Administrative Sources soon after the assessment, which covers the requirement.

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