Annex 2: Revisions analysis of trade in services estimates
A2.1 To support our evidence for Requirement 1 in this report, we conducted revisions analysis on the trade in services estimates. Analysis was done on the monthly trade in services data (current prices) from the monthly bulletins published between March 2022 and February 2025 (covering data from January 2022 to December 2024). We looked at revisions to the total trade in services balance, the exports and the imports. We calculated the mean revision (MR), mean absolute revision (MAR) and the relative mean absolute revision (RMAR). Analysis was done after 1 month (T+1), 6 months (T+6), 1 year (T+12), 18 months (T+18) and 2 years (T+24).
Table 1. Revisions analysis results of the trade in services balance (£ million).
| Period | MR | MAR | RMAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 55 | 536 | 4.3% |
| T+6 | 674 | 905 | 7.5% |
| T+12 | 721 | 1050 | 8.8% |
| T+18 | 952 | 1287 | 10.6% |
| T+24 | 869 | 1366 | 11.2% |
Table 2. Revisions analysis results of the trade in services exports (£ million).
| Period | MR | MAR | RMAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 320 | 799 | 2.4% |
| T+6 | 2379 | 2503 | 8.0% |
| T+12 | 3479 | 3681 | 11.9% |
| T+18 | 4411 | 4411 | 14.7% |
| T+24 | 5042 | 5042 | 17.5% |
Table 3. Revisions analysis results of the trade in services imports (£ million).
| Period | MR | MAR | RMAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| T+1 | 265 | 695 | 3.4% |
| T+6 | 1706 | 2317 | 12.0% |
| T+12 | 2759 | 3460 | 18.7% |
| T+18 | 3459 | 3554 | 20.8% |
| T+24 | 4173 | 4173 | 25.8% |