F. Long term plans for migration estimates
F. ONS should provide clearer information about its longer-term plan for measuring migration estimates. For example, what the longer-term model will look like and how the state space model method (tactical approach) and the admin-based method (strategic approach) will be integrated with this longer-term model and how this fits with ONS plans for a Dynamic Population Model.
Actions taken and commitments made by ONS to meet the recommendation
ONS published What is coming up on population and migration statistics in November 2023 and publishes regular blog posts. ONS also provides updates in sections of other publications on future plans for the population and migration statistics transformation. A recent example is the Future Developments section in the latest Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates publication.
ONS has also launched a public consultation on the future of population and migration statistics to gather user views on its proposals for measuring the population and inform a recommendation on the future of the census. This consultation closed on 26 October 2023 and will inform long-term plans for population and migration statistics.
OSR’s evaluation of evidence
ONS’s blog posts and transformation updates within other publications share important information with users. However, they tend to contain information about next steps. Information on ONS’s long-term plans has not been shared with users.
Whilst we appreciate that the consultation has just closed and responses are still being analysed, it would increase public confidence in ONS’s migration statistics if it shared more information on its future plans with users. We appreciate that this is an ongoing transformation and ONS plans to share some information on its longer term plans through its planned revisions policy, but ONS should share more information with all user groups as soon as possible.
Actions remaining
ONS should publish its longer-term plan for migration statistics and keep users informed of its progress.
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